Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
What was inflation (CPI) in 2024 compared to the latest 2025 rate?
Executive summary
The available reporting shows that headline U.S. CPI inflation for calendar year 2024 was about 2.9 percent, while the most recent 2025 monthly year‑over‑year readings cited in these sources are roughly 3.0 percent (September 2025), indicating a modest uptick from the 2024 annual pace to the latest 2025 reading [1] [2]. Coverage is fragmented across monthly and annual measures, and differences between “calendar‑year” and “12‑month ending” figures, seasonal adjustments, and core versus headline CPI complicate direct one‑line comparisons [3] [4].
1. What the numbers in the sources actually say: headline CPI in 2024 versus the latest 2025 reading
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ review of 2024 reports that consumer prices for all items rose 2.9 percent from December 2023 to December 2024, which is the commonly used inflation rate for the 2024 calendar year [1]. Several 2025 releases and aggregations show year‑over‑year rates in the neighborhood of about 3.0 percent in September 2025; Trading Economics and USAFacts report the headline annual CPI around 3.0 percent for September 2025, and the BLS September 2025 release (cited in summaries) shows a similar 2.9–3.0 percent range for recent months [2] [5] [6]. Thus, the data in these sources point to a small rise from 2.9% [7] to roughly 3.0% (latest 2025 month), though exact decimals vary by release and reference month [1] [2].
2. Why a simple comparison can be misleading: timing, seasonal adjustments and measurement choices
Comparing “inflation in 2024” to “the latest 2025 rate” requires attention to definitions and timing. The BLS publishes both calendar‑endpoint annual changes (December to December) and 12‑month changes for any given month; the Economics Daily notes the CPI increased 3.0 percent from January 2024 to January 2025 and 2.9 percent for December 2024, illustrating how a one‑month shift changes the quoted annual rate [3] [1]. Seasonal adjustments also matter: some series are seasonally adjusted and subject to annual revision of seasonal factors, and BLS notes that seasonal factors for 2024 were recalculated for January 2025 releases, which can change month‑to‑month seasonally adjusted comparisons [6] [4]. The practical upshot is that headline numbers in media or aggregator snapshots (e.g., “about 3% in Sept. 2025”) reflect a specific month’s 12‑month change and not a single immutable “2025 annual” figure [2] [5].
3. Core versus headline: different stories beneath the surface
Several professional analyses emphasize that headline CPI (all items) and core CPI (excluding food and energy) can move differently. J.P. Morgan noted that headline CPI fell to 2.9% in 2024 while core CPI was around 3.2%, signaling that core inflation remained a touch higher than headline last year [8]. Other 2025 commentary cited headline and core rates approaching the Federal Reserve’s 2% target—J.P. Morgan’s April 2025 piece suggested headline near 2.3% and core near 2.8% by April, underscoring divergent trends within the index [9]. The sources therefore imply that a small rise in headline year‑over‑year inflation between 2024 and late 2025 could mask differing trajectories for volatile components like energy and for underlying services inflation [8] [9].
4. What drove the small rise from 2024 to the latest 2025 reading
Available reporting points to energy and food movements as proximate drivers of short‑term headline swings. The BLS and USDA summaries indicate energy costs and food‑at‑home or food‑away‑from‑home changes materially affect monthly readings; for example, food‑away‑from‑home was higher in August 2025 compared with August 2024, and energy showed mixed direction in 2024 [10] [1]. Media summaries of September 2025 also cited a gasoline spike as a driver of a 0.3 percent monthly increase that contributed to the ~3.0 percent year‑over‑year print [11] [6]. That pattern explains how headline year‑over‑year inflation can tick from the 2024 annual figure to a slightly higher reading in late 2025 even as broader disinflationary pressure persists in some components [1] [11].
5. Limits of the available reporting and how to interpret small differences
The sources provided here do not supply a single canonical “2025 annual” CPI number because BLS data are released monthly and seasonal factors are periodically revised; trading and media sites report the latest month’s 12‑month change [4] [2]. Where sources disagree slightly (2.9% vs. 3.0%), the difference stems from which month’s 12‑month change is cited and whether figures are rounded. Analysts like J.P. Morgan highlight that the general trend into 2025 was toward lower inflation compared with 2022–2023 peaks, even if month‑to‑month volatility produced small upticks versus the 2024 year‑end figure [9] [8]. For a precise apples‑to‑apples comparison, use the BLS monthly time series (CPIAUCSL on FRED) and pick the exact months or the December‑to‑December annual change you want to compare [12].
Bottom line
Using the cited sources, 2024’s headline CPI is recorded at about 2.9% (Dec‑to‑Dec) and the latest month‑based readings in 2025 point to roughly 3.0% year‑over‑year—a modest increase that depends on the month and whether headline or core measures are used [1] [2] [8]. For exact, up‑to‑the‑day comparisons, consult the BLS monthly release and the CPI time series on FRED and note seasonal adjustment and core/headline distinctions before drawing policy conclusions [12] [6].