What are projections for US and EU national debt levels through 2030?
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Executive summary
Official and independent forecasts diverge, but converge on a clear theme: both U.S. and many EU public‑debt ratios are projected to rise through 2030 unless policy turns sharply toward consolidation; U.S. debt forecasts cluster between roughly 98–143 percent of GDP by 2030 depending on the source, while European outcomes are highly heterogeneous — some member states may stabilize or reduce ratios, others are projected to climb [1] [2] [3] [4] [5].
1. U.S. headline projections: currently rising, range of estimates
The Congressional Budget Office’s baseline projections under current law show federal debt growing substantially over the coming decade — earlier CBO material cited debt near 98 percent of GDP by 2030 (from pre‑2024 reports) and subsequent updates put federal debt held by the public in the high‑100s as the decade progresses, with one CBO update saying about 109 percent of GDP in 2030 in its “An Update to the Budget Outlook” [1] [2]. Independent analysts give a still wider range: Scope Ratings models a debt‑to‑GDP of about 133 percent by 2030 absent corrective measures [3], while the IMF‑summarized reporting cited by Euronews indicates an even larger rise in general government gross debt in some IMF calculations (from ~120 percent in 2023 to ~143 percent in 2030) — illustrating methodological differences [4].
2. Europe: a patchwork of trajectories rather than a single number
There is no single EU debt number in the supplied reporting; instead, forecasts emphasize divergence across countries: S&P warns mature market leverage rises modestly on average but highlights very large swings across countries and projects material increases in aggregate global and advanced‑economy leverage to 2030 [6], while CaixaBank’s country‑by‑country modelling shows France and Belgium’s ratios rising, Germany’s debt rising due to new investments and defence spending, and euro‑area periphery countries potentially cutting debt by sizeable percentage points with strong fiscal effort [5]. Trading Economics collects per‑country forecasts for EU states, underscoring that national paths vary widely and must be read at the country level rather than as a uniform EU projection [7].
3. Why most projections show higher debt by 2030 — the drivers
Analysts and auditors point to three structural drivers: aging populations that push up pension and health spending, higher interest costs as maturing debt is refinanced at historically higher rates, and persistent primary deficits from a mismatch of revenue and outlays; the U.S. Government Accountability Office projects net interest spending will hit historic highs by 2030 and that interest costs will exceed $1 trillion annually starting around 2029, while CBO and fiscal think tanks identify entitlement growth and rising interest payments as central to rising debt ratios [8] [1] [9].
4. Scenarios and uncertainty: policy and rates matter most
Projections diverge because they hinge on policy choices (taxes, entitlement reforms, spending decisions) and interest‑rate paths; for example, TD Economics calculates that keeping net interest at manageable shares of GDP would require primary surpluses by around 2030, while Scope and S&P show much higher debt outcomes absent consolidation [10] [3] [6]. The Congressional Budget Office’s current‑law baseline is not a prediction of policy changes, so legislated tax cuts, new spending packages, or a market shock could materially alter the 2030 outcomes [1] [2].
5. Bottom line and what to watch to 2030
Expect headline U.S. federal debt held by the public to be substantially higher in 2030 than in 2023 under current law (CBO and other agencies point to mid‑to‑high double‑digit percentage‑point increases in debt‑to‑GDP), with estimates ranging roughly from the high‑90s to low‑hundreds of percent depending on methodology and assumptions [1] [2] [3] [4]; in the EU, the picture is uneven — some states may trim ratios with growth and fiscal effort, while others face rising burdens driven by demographics and interest costs [5] [6]. Key indicators to track between now and 2030 are legislative changes to taxes and entitlements, long‑term interest rates and refinancing costs, and country‑level fiscal balances — because small differences in those variables produce large divergences in debt outcomes by 2030 [8] [9] [5].