How have US food inflation rates changed from 2024 to November 2025?
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Executive summary
U.S. food inflation eased from the highs of 2022 and 2023 to roughly mid-single and low-single digits in 2024 and into 2025: the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) reported that food price increases slowed to about 2.3% for all food in 2024 (using data through November) and ERS and other sources show continued moderation in 2025 with year‑over‑year food CPI around 2–3% by mid‑2025 and food‑away‑from‑home running higher near 3.5–4.0% [1] [2] [3]. Coverage is concentrated in USDA/ERS and BLS summaries and industry analyses; monthly BLS releases provide the granular month‑to‑month CPI detail [4] [3].
1. How big was the slowdown from 2023 to 2024 — a clear inflection
After a peak in 2022, food inflation fell from double‑digit pressures to more moderate rates: ERS notes overall food price growth of 5.8% in 2023 but reports that prices for all food were predicted to increase 2.3% in 2024 based on data through November [2] [1]. Investigative and agricultural outlets likewise cite the 2.3% 2024 figure, framing 2024 as a year when consumers “saw a reprieve” from the rapid increases seen in prior years [5] [1].
2. The 2024 baseline the question uses — USDA’s November‑through‑November snapshot
The USDA/ERS reporting that forms much of the narrative uses data through November to set 2024’s baseline: ERS’ Food Price Outlook and related analyses explicitly state the 2024 estimate (2.3% for all food) and decompose grocery (food‑at‑home) and restaurant (food‑away‑from‑home) trends in their outlooks [1] [2]. Other trackers and visuals rely on BLS CPI data to show monthly year‑over‑year changes that align with the USDA’s annual number [6] [7].
3. How 2025 evolved through mid‑ and late‑year — moderation with split trends
Multiple ERS and industry summaries in 2025 show moderation continuing but with a split: grocery prices (food‑at‑home) rose more slowly than restaurant prices in early‑to‑mid 2025 — for example ERS reported food‑at‑home CPI up ~2.7% year‑over‑year in August 2025 and food‑away‑from‑home up about 3.9% versus August 2024; overall food CPI was 3.2% higher in August 2025 than a year earlier [3]. Forecasts cited by Purdue and Visual Capitalist place expected full‑year 2025 food inflation in the ~1.9–2.5% range for “all food,” with restaurants higher than groceries [8] [6].
4. Drivers and volatile categories — why rates differed month to month
Reporting highlights category‑level volatility that shaped year‑to‑year rates: ERS and visual analyses point to sharper rises in some items (notably beef, eggs, and poultry at times) driven by supply shocks such as avian influenza and farm‑level price swings; Visual Capitalist and farmdoc note specific large increases (e.g., beef/veal and egg price swings) that keep headline food inflation uneven [9] [10]. These idiosyncratic surges help explain why aggregate food inflation could moderate while consumers still perceive grocery pain.
5. Forecasts versus realized monthly CPI — modest downward pressure in 2025
USDA forecasts and mid‑year CPI releases suggest 2025 remaining a year of slower food price growth relative to 2022–23: ERS projection ranges show food‑at‑home rising in 2025 slower than the 2005–24 average (2.6%) while food‑away‑from‑home was expected to grow above average (~3.5%) [2]. BLS monthly releases provide the detailed month‑to‑month CPI that underpins these trends [4] [3].
6. What the numbers mean for consumers and politics — perceptions lag reality
Even as headline food inflation moderated to roughly low‑single‑digit rates in 2024 and mid‑2025, consumer perceptions remained elevated: surveys and coverage show strong public frustration with grocery prices despite the cooler CPI trajectory, and political actors have seized on those perceptions in campaign messaging [8] [11] [5]. Analysts warn that tariffs, weather or disease shocks (e.g., avian influenza) could reverse modest gains, which is why USDA scenarios show uncertainty around the ranges [5] [1].
7. Limits of the current reporting and where to look next
Available sources center on USDA/ERS summaries, BLS CPI releases, and select industry analyses; detailed month‑by‑month CPI tables from the BLS would give the precise month‑to‑month change from November 2024 through November 2025, but the provided materials summarize annual and through‑mid‑2025 movement rather than a complete November‑to‑November series in a single table [4] [3]. For a precise November 2025 versus November 2024 comparison, consult the BLS CPI monthly release for that month; ERS and farm‑focused outlets provide the broader annual context and category breakdowns [4] [2] [10].
Bottom line: USDA/ERS and BLS‑based reporting show food inflation eased from about 5.8% in 2023 to roughly 2.3% for all food in 2024 (data through November), then moderated through 2025 with groceries generally rising at ~2% and restaurant prices higher around 3.5–4.0% in mid‑2025 — but volatile categories and policy risks mean the path to November 2025 remained uncertain [1] [2] [3].