Fact check: What has been the average annual inflation rate for groceries in the US since 2020?

1. Why “average” depends on the clock you pick — recent snapshots versus multi‑year accumulation

Different sources use different baselines and reporting windows, producing divergent headline rates. Monthly CPI releases show 12‑month changes near 3% for all‑food and food‑at‑home measures in mid‑2024–2025, which capture the most recent pace of inflation ^{[2] [3] [4]}. By contrast, multi‑year summaries report total growth of 23.6% from 2020–2024 or 29% since February 2020 through a later date, which reflect the accumulated shock during and after the pandemic and thus imply a higher implied annualized rate when converted from cumulative growth ^{[5] [1]}.

2. Two common ways reporters frame the answer — year‑over‑year vs. annualized cumulative

Journalists and analysts either quote the latest 12‑month CPI number (a contemporaneous pace) or compute an annualized rate from cumulative change since 2020. The 12‑month readings around 2.7–3.7% for food‑at‑home and food‑away‑from‑home highlight what consumers are experiencing this year ^[3]. In contrast, the 23.6% jump from 2020–2024 translates to about 5.9% per year if averaged across those four years, while 29% cumulative since Feb 2020 annualized over ~5.6 years gives a lower annualized figure, roughly mid‑4% territory ^{[5] [1]}.

3. How to reconcile the mid‑range “3% today vs. ~6% since 2020” messages

Both messages are accurate but emphasize different facts. The 3% figure reports how food prices changed in the most recent 12 months, useful for short‑term budgeting and monetary‑policy assessment ^{[2] [3] [4]}. The ~5.9% and ~4–5% annualized numbers reflect the lingering impact of the pandemic era and supply‑chain disruptions on prices when averaged over multiple years ^{[5] [1]}. Policymakers and households should therefore treat the lower recent pace as a signal of deceleration, not as erasure of earlier accumulated price pressure.

4. A closer look at subcomponents — food‑at‑home vs. food‑away‑from‑home tells different stories

Sources note divergence across subcomponents: food‑at‑home (groceries) and food‑away‑from‑home (restaurants) have moved differently, with food‑away generally rising faster in some months (food‑at‑home +2.7%, food‑away +3.7% in one report). Averaging across all food masks this heterogeneity, and households that rely more on groceries versus dining out experience different effective inflation rates ^[3]. Aggregated CPI numbers thus provide a useful headline, but shopper budgets are affected by these subcomponent shifts.

5. Source reliability and possible framing agendas to watch

The supplied sources present consistent empirical CPI data but emphasize different narratives: industry pieces highlighting total cumulative increases stress “no relief” and the large pandemic‑era gains ^[1], while economic summaries and CPI releases emphasize recent deceleration around 3% to signal improvement ^{[2] [3] [4]}. The cumulative figures can be used to argue for enduring consumer pain and the recent 12‑month figures can be used to argue that inflation is moderating; both frames are fact‑based but serve different policy and political conversations ^{[1] [5]}.

6. Bottom line for a straightforward answer and how to report it responsibly

If you want a single concise figure: short‑term (latest 12‑month) grocery inflation is about 3%, while the multi‑year average since 2020 depends on the chosen end date — approximately 5.9% per year from 2020–2024, or roughly mid‑4% per year if you annualize a 29% cumulative rise from Feb 2020 to late‑2025. Report both numbers together: “~3% in the last 12 months; ~4–6% annualized since 2020 depending on the window” — that conveys the immediate pace and the legacy of earlier, larger increases ^{[1] [2] [5] [4]}.