What is the year-to-date US inflation rate for 2025 through November or latest month?
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Executive summary
As of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics releases cited in available reporting, headline U.S. consumer inflation (CPI) stood at about 3.0% on a 12‑month basis in September 2025; several secondary sources and federal reports repeat that September reading and note the October CPI release was delayed/canceled due to a government shutdown, with the next official update scheduled for December 18, 2025 to cover November [1] [2] [3]. The Treasury and other trackers likewise report 3.0% year‑over‑year CPI for September 2025 and describe core and category patterns that kept inflation above the Fed’s 2% goal [4] [5].
1. What the official CPI releases say: September 2025 at about 3.0%
The BLS monthly CPI release for September 2025 shows the index rose 0.3% for the month and the 12‑month (year‑over‑year) headline CPI was reported at roughly 3.0% in that release [1]. The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s statement to its Borrowing Advisory Committee echoes that same 3.0% twelve‑month headline CPI as of September 2025 [4].
2. Why there’s no clean “year‑to‑date through November” number in these sources
Multiple sources emphasize that the October 2025 CPI (and other monthly economic releases) were disrupted by a government shutdown; one tracker and news items note the October CPI report was canceled and data flows were interrupted, and the next scheduled CPI update to cover November was set for December 18, 2025 [2] [3]. Because of that disruption, the authoritative, fully released official series in these sources stops at September 2025, so an official year‑to‑date 2025 figure through November is not published in the cited reporting [1] [2].
3. What other agencies and analysts are reporting about late‑2025 inflation
Trade and data aggregators, economic outlook pieces, and visualizations cite the BLS/USAFacts data and likewise highlight a headline inflation level around 3% by late 2025 [5] [6] [7]. TradingEconomics and similar data services also reproduce the September 2025 rise to 3.0% and discuss component drivers—energy, shelter, food—while noting core inflation measures remained elevated near 3% as well [8] [5].
4. Year‑to‑date versus 12‑month measures — different questions, different answers
Sources make clear there are multiple ways to report “inflation”: a calendar year‑to‑date accumulated change, a 12‑month (year‑over‑year) rate, and PCE versus CPI measures. The available BLS release and related documents cited here present the 12‑month CPI (3.0% in September) and monthly movements (e.g., +0.3% in September), but reporting in these sources does not provide a calculated 2025 year‑to‑date CPI through November because official monthly data for October and November were either canceled or not yet published in the cited items [1] [2] [3].
5. Related inflation measures: PCE and expectations
The PCE price index—favored by the Fed—was described in later reporting as running a bit lower than some CPI readings in late 2025 (headline and core PCE around 2.8% in a Commerce/BEA‑cited article), and consumer inflation expectations (Survey of Consumer Expectations) are summarized by the New York Fed as showing one‑year expectations around 3.2% in November 2025 [9] [10]. These alternative measures matter because they shape Fed policy and public perception differently than headline CPI [9] [10].
6. How to interpret “about 3%” and what to watch next
The consistent theme across these sources is that inflation had stabilized near 3% by September 2025 and remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target into the autumn; that persistence in services (notably shelter and some components of food and health) is cited as keeping headline and core readings elevated [4] [5] [8]. The immediate datapoint to watch in the cited reporting is the December 18, 2025 BLS release scheduled to provide the November CPI reading and restore the month‑by‑month continuity that was interrupted [2].
Limitations and note on sources: The conclusions above rely on BLS/treasury quotations and widely syndicated data services that report the September 2025 CPI and describe the October reporting disruption; available sources in your packet do not publish an authoritative year‑to‑date CPI number through November 2025, and do not provide a finalized November CPI figure [1] [2] [3].