What is the inflation rate so farfor 2025
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Executive summary
The most recent official monthly CPI release available in these sources shows U.S. headline CPI year‑over‑year at 3.0% for the 12 months ending September 2025 (CPI‑U) and core PCE at 2.8% annual in September 2025 — both above the Fed’s 2% target but well below rates seen in 2022 [1] [2] [3]. Some private trackers and media reported a modest uptick from summer months (e.g., August 2.9% to September ~3.0–3.1%), while government reporting was disrupted for a period by a shutdown that delayed or threatened some releases [4] [5] [6].
1. What the official data say right now — headline CPI at about 3.0%
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September 2025 CPI summary reports the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI‑U) rose 0.3% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis and shows the 12‑month change around 3.0% as of September 2025 [1]. The Treasury’s statement likewise cites a 3.0% twelve‑month CPI for September 2025 when discussing third‑quarter indicators [3]. Those are the primary official measures cited in these sources.
2. Fed’s preferred measure — PCE around 2.8% for September
The Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — registered an annual rate of about 2.8% in September 2025, with core PCE also roughly 2.8% year‑over‑year and a 0.2% monthly core rise in that month, according to reporting that summarized the delayed PCE release [2]. This puts core PCE below the headline CPI reading but still above 2%.
3. Short‑run trend: slight pickup from late summer
Multiple private and media sources noted a small acceleration in inflation from mid‑summer to September 2025: TradingEconomics and other outlets characterized September as a pickup (reports referencing a rise to ~3.0–3.1% year‑over‑year), and the CPI monthly series showed a moderation in monthly gains from 0.4% in August to 0.3% in September [4] [1]. Analysts attributed the pickup to food, tariff‑affected goods and energy components in some accounts [4].
4. Data reliability caveat: releases were disrupted by a government shutdown
Coverage in Fortune, NPR and other outlets noted that the six‑week government shutdown in fall 2025 furloughed BLS staff and delayed or imperiled official jobs and inflation releases for October — and raised questions about whether some delayed monthly series might be permanently lost or affected [5] [6]. The Fed itself acknowledged delayed data complicated policymaking ahead of its December 2025 meeting [6].
5. What markets and the Fed are using — expectations and nowcasts
Because official data can lag or become patchy in disrupted periods, economists and central banks lean on nowcasts and surveys. The Cleveland Fed publishes daily nowcasts of CPI and PCE that are used to estimate current inflation before official releases [7]. Meanwhile, consumer inflation expectations have remained elevated — the New York Fed’s November survey showed one‑year‑ahead median expectations at 3.2% [8].
6. How policymakers reacted — interest‑rate context
Fed officials continued to weigh stubbornly above‑target inflation even as they cut rates in December 2025; the December FOMC materials show participants still projecting a range for overall inflation and revealing uncertainty around near‑term outcomes [9] [6]. News coverage of the December 10 Fed decision stressed that the committee was divided and that missing data complicated deliberations [6] [10].
7. Two perspectives to hold in parallel
One narrative: inflation has largely normalized from the double‑digit fears of 2022 and sits in the high‑2% to low‑3% range (CPI ~3.0%, PCE ~2.8%), which supports gradual policy easing if labor markets soften [1] [2] [3]. The counterpoint: prices remain stubbornly above the 2% target, and some service and shelter components are slow to decelerate — leaving the Fed cautious and creating risk that cuts could be premature [4] [9].
Limitations and final note: available sources here report inflation through September 2025 and discuss disruptions to October data releases; they do not provide a complete month‑by‑month 2025 year‑to‑date average beyond those cited months or any official October/November CPI numbers that might have been issued later [1] [5]. If you want a single “so far in 2025” annual figure or a month‑by‑month table updated through November/December, say so and I’ll pull the latest official BLS and BEA releases or daily nowcasts referenced above [1] [2] [7].