What is the inflation rate under trump
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Executive summary
Available official and media sources show headline U.S. consumer inflation running roughly in the 2.5–3.0% range during President Trump’s second-term months in 2025; the Treasury reported CPI at 3.0% year-over-year in September 2025 [1], while the White House cites a 2.5–2.7% average in its communications [2] [3]. Fact‑checkers and news outlets note the picture depends on which measure is used (headline vs. core, or excluding volatile food and energy), producing different takes on whether “inflation eased” under Trump [4] [5].
1. The headline numbers reporters point to
The Treasury’s official statement said headline CPI was 3.0% on a 12‑month basis as of September 2025, and that inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in the third quarter [1]. Independent outlets cite similar magnitudes: several fact‑checks report year‑over‑year CPI near 3.0% in mid‑ to late‑2025 [4] [6]. Those are the primary, regularly cited figures in the reporting on “inflation under Trump.”
2. How the White House frames it
White House posts present a more favorable arithmetic: multiple White House summaries say inflation averaged about 2.5–2.7% during Trump’s second term and highlight declines in specific categories such as shelter, vehicles and some energy prices as evidence of progress [2] [7] [3] [8]. Those releases emphasize real wage gains and falling prices in particular sectors to argue the administration has “cut” inflation [2] [8].
3. Why fact‑checkers and economists say “it depends”
Independent fact‑checkers and reporting stress measure choice matters. Stripping out food and energy — or looking at “core” inflation — gives a different result than headline CPI; for example, core inflation excluding food and energy was reported around 3.0% in September, slightly below some earlier months but still elevated versus the Fed’s 2% goal [4] [6]. PolitiFact and others note different measures show both improvement and persistence, so claims like “no inflation” are rated false or Half True depending on the exact wording [4] [5].
4. Sectoral detail that shapes public experience
Even with headline rates near 3%, many categories saw notable moves that change everyday affordability: electricity, used vehicles, medical care, groceries and durable goods all exhibited meaningful price increases in reporting cited by fact‑checkers (electricity up 6.2% year‑over‑year in one comparison) [5]. The White House counters by pointing to falling prices in other categories — new/used vehicles and airfares at times — producing contrasting impressions for consumers [9] [2].
5. Politics, messaging and polling implications
Political coverage shows this is not just a technical dispute: polling and news outlets report growing public concern about costs and falling approvals on the economy for the president, with some Republicans saying he portrays prices as better than they are [10] [11]. The administration’s messaging (statements touting 2.5–2.7% averages) competes with fact‑checks and news stories noting rising costs in specific categories and the uptick in inflation after tariff moves — a political tug‑of‑war reflected in media and polls [12] [10].
6. What’s missing or uncertain in the available reporting
Available sources do not present a single, authoritative “inflation under Trump” number that covers all months of his term through December 2025; instead, they offer snapshots (e.g., CPI = 3.0% in September 2025 from Treasury) and averaged claims from the White House (2.5–2.7%) [1] [2]. Detailed month‑by‑month official CPI series or a consolidated year‑to‑date average through December 2025 are not provided in these excerpts; for granular trend analysis you would need the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases or Treasury tables not included here [1].
7. Bottom line for readers
If your question is “what is the inflation rate under Trump,” the best summary from available reporting is that headline CPI in mid‑to‑late 2025 hovered around 3.0% (Treasury) while the White House frames an average nearer 2.5–2.7% by emphasizing selected months and categories [1] [2]. Independent fact‑checkers caution that results change by measurement (headline vs. core vs. excluding food/energy), and that many Americans still feel price pressures in key items such as groceries, utilities and medical care [4] [5].