What was the year-over-year US inflation rate for November 2025?
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Executive summary
The official 12‑month U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 is not included directly in the provided sources; however, multiple contemporaneous reports and data trackers said headline inflation had been running around 3.0% through September and market consensus expected November to be roughly 2.9–3.1% year‑over‑year [1] [2] [3]. The BLS schedule listed a December 18, 2025 release for the November CPI, with analysts forecasting about 3% YoY [1] [3].
1. What the sources actually say about November 2025 inflation
The Bureau of Labor Statistics data available in the provided material only report the 12‑month CPI through September 2025 at 3.0% [1] [4]. Several secondary outlets and market commentary state that the next official CPI release — which would cover November 2025 — was scheduled for December 18, 2025, and that market consensus for the November headline CPI centered near 2.9–3.1% YoY, roughly 3% [1] [3] [2].
2. Why there's uncertainty about the exact November number
The reporting window in these sources notes disruptions and missing releases earlier in the fall: October CPI publication was delayed or unavailable in some analyses, and some Fed and Cleveland Fed products used nowcasts to fill the gap [1] [5] [6]. Because the provided documents stop short of publishing the BLS’s official November CPI print, the precise BLS‑reported YoY rate for November is not present in the materials you supplied [1] [5].
3. Independent trackers and market forecasts point to ~3%
Contemporary analyst writeups and data aggregators described inflation as having “stabilized around 3%” in 2025 and explicitly reported market expectations for November at about 2.9–3.1% YoY [7] [2] [3]. Those sources consistently frame the likely November reading as close to the 3.0% pace reported for September [2] [7].
4. Nowcasts and institutional estimates were used to bridge missing data
Because October CPI values were missing from public BLS releases in some accounts, institutions like the Cleveland Fed and other analysts used nowcasting models combining oil, gasoline and previous CPI series to estimate recent months’ inflation before the official BLS print [6] [5]. Those methodologies can produce accurate interim estimates but are not substitutes for the BLS official figure [6].
5. What this means for readers and policymakers
If November turned out to be near the consensus ~3% level described by these sources, it would imply inflation remained well above the Fed’s 2% objective and continued the “stabilized around 3%” narrative many analysts were using in late 2025 [7] [8]. Policymakers and markets were watching November’s print closely because it followed a period of missing data and because inflation expectations among consumers were reported in survey work at elevated levels (one‑year median expectations at 3.2%) which may influence wage and price setting [9].
6. Limits of the current reporting and how to verify the exact number
The materials you provided do not contain the BLS’s official November 2025 CPI figure. The clearest path to verification is to consult the BLS CPI release for December 18, 2025, or a direct BLS news release or table for the November 2025 CPI (not found among these sources) [1] [3]. Until that official BLS posting is cited, any November YoY number in these sources is an expectation, estimate, or an inference from nowcasts rather than the BLS’s published statistic [5] [6].
7. Bottom line and recommended next steps
Available sources indicate the market and analysts expected November 2025 headline CPI to be about 2.9–3.1% YoY, consistent with a September reading of 3.0% [3] [1] [2]. To obtain the definitive year‑over‑year rate for November 2025, consult the official BLS CPI release dated December 18, 2025, which is the specific publication these sources referenced as containing the November figure [1] [3].