What was the price of milk in america before trump came to office in 2025 and has it risen during this term
Executive summary
Farm-level milk prices entering the beginning of the Trump administration in January 2025 were near the recovered 2024/early‑2025 level — USDA Economic Research Service’s “all‑milk” forecast for 2025 was about $21.00 per hundredweight (cwt) [1] — and most official forecasts and market reporting show prices easing (not rising) later in the term, with ERS projecting all‑milk at $18.75/cwt for 2026 [1] while retail grocery indices for food broadly rose during 2025 under the administration [2].
1. What “price of milk” means and the best public benchmarks
Milk price is reported at several levels: farm‑gate “all‑milk” or Class prices quoted per hundredweight (cwt), and retail grocery prices consumers pay per gallon or liter; the clearest government benchmarks in the reporting supplied are ERS’s all‑milk price forecasts and USDA/AMS announced Class prices [1] [3], which are the standard measures used by analysts to track producer receipts and supply conditions [1].
2. The price picture just before Trump’s 2025 inauguration
By the end of 2024 and into early 2025 milk prices had recovered from depressed 2023 levels; ERS’s published projection for 2025 put the all‑milk price at $21.00/cwt (a commonly cited industry aggregate) — a level reflecting the recovery analysts observed into the start of 2025 [1] [4], and industry reporting noted Class III spikes into the low‑$20s per cwt in late 2024 (Class III reached about $24 in the fall, according to market coverage cited by Dairy Herd) [5].
3. How prices moved during Trump’s 2025–26 term according to official forecasts
Available federal forecasts and announced prices in the record show a downward trajectory for farm‑level milk through 2026: ERS lowered the all‑milk forecast to $18.75/cwt for 2026 [1] and USDA AMS announced a Base Class I price of $16.35/cwt for January 2026 [3], indicating that farm‑level prices did not broadly rise during the term and were, in fact, forecasted to moderate after the 2025 peak projection [1] [3].
4. Retail grocery prices versus farm prices — a divergent story
While farm receipts (all‑milk and Class prices) were forecast to soften in 2026, headline grocery inflation for food did not uniformly decline; independent outlets synthesizing BLS and other data reported that grocery prices overall climbed during Trump’s administration in 2025 despite presidential claims to the contrary [2], and fact‑checking organizations flagged overstatements about falling grocery inflation [6]. This means retail consumers may not have felt a proportionate drop even if farm benchmarks eased.
5. Forces likely driving the trend: weather, trade and policy
Analysts and industry groups cited weather‑related supply risks, changing feed costs, trade retaliation and tariff plans, and labor concerns as material drivers of milk price volatility in 2025–26: Farm Credit East highlighted weather and disease risks and noted policy unknowns tied to the incoming administration [4], Cornell economists and other analysts warned that tariffs and immigration enforcement could materially hurt dairy economics and push prices down in 2025–26 [7], and broader coverage noted the potential for tariff‑driven disruption to farm economics [8] [9].
6. Alternative viewpoints and limits of the sourcing
Industry voices differ: some producers saw strong 2025 milk receipts and even short‑term spikes in some Class prices [5], while farmer advocacy groups and trade analysts warned of worsening margins and long‑term pressure from trade policy [8] [7]; the reporting supplied does not provide a complete time series of retail gallon‑prices or a final ex‑post 2026 average, so definitive statements about every consumer’s experience cannot be made from these sources alone [1] [3] [2].