Fact check: Is the United States going to be in a recession

1. Summary of the results

Based on multiple economic indicators and expert analyses, the U.S. is not currently in a recession, but there are varying predictions about the likelihood of one occurring:

• The Sahm Rule Indicator shows 0.40 percentage points (December 2024), below the recession threshold of 0.50 ^[1]
• The NBER recession indicator remains at 0 as of January 2025, indicating continued economic expansion ^[2]
• Different institutions provide varying recession probabilities:

New York Fed model: 29.4% chance in next 12 months ^{[3] [3]}

Goldman Sachs: 15% chance, with 2.5% GDP growth forecast ^[4]

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Several important economic factors provide crucial context:

• The CBO projects a gradual economic slowdown:

GDP growth expected to decrease from 2.3% ^[5] to 1.9% ^[6] and 1.8% ^{[7] [8]}

The Federal Reserve is expected to continue reducing interest rates through 2026, which could help maintain growth ^[8]

• Many economists anticipate a "soft landing" rather than a full recession ^[3]
• Key risk factors include:

Potential inflation resurgence

Proposed tariffs that could affect economic stability ^[3]

Labor market conditions ^[3]

**3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement**

The question oversimplifies a complex economic situation. Different stakeholders have varying interests in recession predictions:

Financial institutions like Goldman Sachs tend to present more optimistic outlooks (15% chance) ^[4], which could influence market confidence and their business interests

• The Federal Reserve and government agencies (CBO) focus on gradual slowdown rather than recession terminology ^[8], potentially to maintain economic stability
• Economic forecasters and academic institutions (like NBER) aim to provide objective indicators ^[2], though their methodologies may differ
• Previous recession fears have not materialized according to some sources ^[4], suggesting the need for careful consideration of economic predictions