How does 2025 US tariff revenue compare to 2024 and prior years historically?
Executive summary
Fiscal 2025 saw tariff receipts surge to roughly $165–195 billion (Treasury-based and reporting sources vary), more than double FY2024’s ~$77 billion and several times the typical pre-2025 annual collections [1] [2] [3]. Multiple budget-modeling groups and the CBO project that, if sustained, 2025 tariffs would translate into trillions of dollars of conventional revenue over the coming decade, though dynamic (growth-adjusted) estimates are meaningfully lower and legal challenges could wipe out much of the gain [4] [5] [6].
1. Sudden spike: how big was the jump in 2025 receipts?
Tariff revenue in FY2025 rose sharply from FY2024’s roughly $77 billion to preliminary FY2025 tallies in the $165–195 billion range reported by Treasury-based trackers and news outlets — a year-over-year increase of well over 100 percent [1] [2]. Independent trackers that use daily Treasury and customs data and academic groups report comparable large increases through mid‑2025: Penn Wharton counted about $101.2 billion between January and August (pre-offset) and Yale’s Budget Lab reported totals in the $88–146 billion range for various windows in 2025 [5] [7] [8].
2. What explains the jump compared with prior years?
The rise stems from a sharp expansion of tariff rates and new tariff actions in 2025, which raised the effective tariff rate from low single digits in early 2024 to double‑digit levels in 2025 — CBO quantified the increase at about an 18‑percentage‑point rise versus 2024 trade flows [9]. Analysts also point to importers’ stockpiling earlier in the year and the concentration of duties on high‑volume partners (China) and high‑tariff product categories as drivers of outsized collections [10] [5] [11].
3. Counting receipts vs. net revenue: important caveats
Multiple experts warn that headline customs collections overstate the net fiscal benefit. Customs duties are recorded as collections, but standard budget scoring deducts income and payroll offsets (because tariffs reduce taxable income and economic activity) and judges have already questioned the legality of some tariffs, which could force reversals or refunds [10] [12] [6]. Tax Foundation and CBO work show conventional (static) revenue sums over a decade in the trillions, but dynamic estimates that factor in slower growth reduce those totals by hundreds of billions [13] [4] [14].
4. Projections and disagreement among models
Forecasts diverge. The Tax Policy Center, Yale’s Budget Lab, the Penn Wharton model and CBO each produce multi‑year revenue estimates that differ in magnitude because they use different baselines, years, and assumptions about exemptions, compliance, price‑pass‑through and macroeconomic effects. Estimates of 2026–2035 revenue run from roughly $2.0 trillion (dynamic) to $2.7 trillion (conventional) across these groups; CBO has repeatedly updated its projections upward for 2025–2035 as policy details and trade flows changed [4] [13] [14] [15].
5. What 2025 means historically
Historically, customs duties were a much smaller and more stable share of federal revenue (single‑digit billions monthly through 2018 and roughly $27–108 billion annual ranges in earlier years). The 2025 collections — monthly figures exceeding $20–30 billion in some months versus under $10 billion monthly in 2024 — are unprecedented in recent decades and represent a fundamental shift in the revenue profile if sustained [1] [16] [17].
6. Legal and political risks that could reverse gains
Legal challenges already affect the narrative: courts have ruled some 2025 tariffs illegal, and the Supreme Court could curtail others, in which case projected tariff revenue would drop substantially and earlier collections might be at risk of refunds or reclassification [6] [18]. The administration’s public framing has also shifted — lawyers argued in court that revenue was “incidental,” revealing a political defense strategy that differs from earlier claims that tariffs would pay for tax cuts or direct payments [18].
7. Bottom line for policymakers and the public
Tariff collections in 2025 represent a large, abrupt increase versus 2024 and recent historical norms, and many credible models project trillions of conventional revenue over a decade if policies persist [2] [3] [4]. That potential is qualified by three facts emphasized across sources: net revenue after income/payroll offsets will be materially lower than headline customs receipts [10] [12], macroeconomic feedback reduces long‑run gains in dynamic models [13] [4], and legal rulings and policy changes could erase much or all of the windfall [6] [18]. Available sources do not mention how Congress would legally allocate any specific tariff receipts to programs beyond the regular appropriations process (not found in current reporting).