How much did US tariff revenue total in 2025 year-to-date and full-year estimates?
This fact-check may be outdated. Consider refreshing it to get the most current information.
Executive summary
The U.S. collected roughly $165–195 billion in tariff (customs duties) revenue in fiscal year 2025, with year‑to‑date calendar‑year or partial‑year tallies varying by source and cutoffs: Treasury and news reporting cite about $195 billion for FY2025 (final Monthly Treasury Statements) while several research groups report calendar‑year or through‑August totals between $101 billion and $165 billion [1] [2] [3] [4]. Estimates of what tariffs will raise going forward diverge widely—from a few hundred billion in a single year to multi‑trillion sums over a decade—depending on modelling choices and legal outcomes [5] [6] [7].
1. How much was actually collected in FY2025 — the headline
The most frequently cited final Treasury figure for fiscal year 2025 is about $195 billion in customs duties, reported in news summaries and budget trackers as the FY2025 total [1] [2] [8]. Multiple outlets reference that number when describing the astonishing jump from prior years and the fiscal significance of new 2025 tariff actions [1] [2].
2. Year‑to‑date and partial‑year reporting — the lower, granular tallies
Academic and budget‑model trackers that measure calendar‑year or through‑August totals report smaller but still large amounts: Penn Wharton estimated new tariffs raised $101.2 billion between January and August 2025 (pre‑offset) while Yale’s Budget Lab and other trackers put total customs duty collections through August or early autumn in the $146–165 billion range [3] [9] [4]. The Peterson Institute charted $149 billion since January as of August 2025, underscoring that reported totals depend on whether you count calendar vs. fiscal year and whether you include only “new” tariffs or all customs duties [10].
3. Why numbers diverge — baseline, timing, and accounting
Differences arise from three clear factors: which time window is used (calendar‑year vs. fiscal‑year to date), whether figures count only newly imposed 2025 tariff revenues or all customs duties, and whether analysts adjust for offsetting effects (reduced income/payroll taxes, refunds, exclusions). For example, Penn Wharton’s $101.2 billion is a January–August figure for new tariffs before accounting for income/payroll tax offsets; Yale and other groups report similar but not identical year‑to‑date totals because they use different data and assumptions [3] [9] [11].
4. Forward‑looking full‑year or multi‑year estimates — wide range and contingent risks
Projections for 2026 and for the 2025–2035 window vary dramatically. Some organizations (CBO, Yale, Tax Foundation, CRFB) show multi‑trillion totals over a decade under “conventional” scoring; others emphasize legal risk that could wipe out significant revenue if courts invalidate key tariffs [7] [5] [1] [6]. CBO’s iterative updates have raised and lowered long‑run estimates as tariff scope, exemptions and importer behavior change; Yale’s Budget Lab and Tax Foundation produce different decade totals because of model choices [7] [5] [6].
5. Legal and behavioral caveats that could erase collections
Major caveats: several courts have found some 2025 tariffs legally vulnerable, and the Supreme Court was set to decide on their legality; if struck down, the Treasury could be forced to refund collections or otherwise reduce projected revenue, a point emphasized by CRFB and reporting on possible refunds [1] [12]. Importer behavior—stockpiling, rerouting, foreign exporters absorbing price changes—also changes short‑run receipts and the annualized picture [3] [13].
6. What the revenue means for policy — small in context, politically large
Even the headline FY2025 customs duties figure (~$195 billion) is small relative to total federal revenues and deficits: Treasury individual income tax receipts in FY2025 were cited at about $2.66 trillion, and tariff revenue is a fraction of overall receipts and of the $1.8 trillion FY2025 deficit [2] [1]. Analysts warn tariff collections are volatile and economically distortive; Brookings, Tax Foundation and others argue tariffs are an inefficient and uncertain revenue source relative to traditional taxes [14] [5].
7. Bottom line for your question
Available reporting converges on roughly $165–195 billion collected in 2025 depending on the metric: about $195 billion is cited as the FY2025 Treasury total [1] [2], while multiple trackers report calendar‑year or through‑August totals between roughly $101 billion (new tariffs, Jan–Aug, pre‑offset) and $165 billion (Treasury monthlies through August) [3] [9] [4]. Full‑year future and decade‑long projections vary from hundreds of billions per year to several trillion over a decade and are highly sensitive to legal outcomes and modeling assumptions [5] [6] [7].
Limitations: available sources do not provide a single unified “official” calendar‑year YTD number because agencies and analysts use different cutoffs and adjustments; legal rulings and administrative changes after the cited reports could materially change these figures [1] [7].