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How did US tariff revenue in 2023 compare to 2022 and 2021?
Executive Summary
US tariff revenue for 2023 is not consistently or explicitly stated across the provided analyses, producing conflicting and incomplete claims: one analysis reports $80 billion in 2023 (matching 2021) and $100 billion in 2022, another highlights a sharp jump in 2024–2025 with $77 billion in FY2024 and $195 billion in FY2025 while noting $108 billion in 2022, and several sources state that the datasets reviewed do not contain direct 2023 figures. No single, unambiguous consensus on 2023 vs. 2022 and 2021 emerges from the supplied materials, because multiple summaries either omit 2023 figures or provide differing historical baselines; the clearest points are that 2022 is repeatedly referenced as materially larger than earlier years and that 2024–2025 show pronounced increases [1] [2] [3] [4]. This review extracts those divergent claims, identifies data gaps, and contrasts interpretations across the supplied sources.
1. Why the numbers diverge — missing 2023 in many briefings
Multiple supplied analyses explicitly state that their sources do not provide direct, explicit tariff totals for 2023, which accounts for much of the divergence in claims and summaries. Several items in the dataset are methodological or contextual discussions — explaining how tariff revenue is tracked or the economic impact of tariffs — rather than presenting a clean year-by-year revenue table for 2021–2023, and at least three source summaries say they lack the 2023 data point entirely [4] [5] [6]. That absence creates room for inferred or partial reporting, where one analysis derives a $80 billion 2023 figure and equates it to 2021 while another highlights 2022 as $108–$100 billion and emphasizes later 2024–2025 jumps. The lack of a consistently cited primary data table in the provided set is the proximate cause of the conflicting narratives.
2. The claim that 2023 equaled 2021 at $80 billion — what that implies
One analysis asserts that 2023 tariff revenue was $80 billion, equal to 2021, and below 2022’s $100 billion [2]. If taken at face value, this portrays 2022 as an outlier elevated year and suggests 2023 returned to earlier levels. That claim sits alongside contextual notes that customs duties historically make up a small share of total tax revenue and have fluctuated with policy changes and trade patterns [7]. This interpretation frames 2022 as the revenue spike, implying that either temporary tariff measures or particular trade flows caused the increase before revenues normalized. However, the supplied materials do not include the underlying accounting tables or agency citations that would validate the $80 billion figure for 2023, so this claim remains an unsupported point estimate within the current corpus [2] [7].
3. The alternative narrative: 2022 as baseline and 2024–2025 surge
A competing summary highlights $108 billion for tariff revenue in 2022 and documents a notable surge in 2024–2025 — $77 billion in FY2024 and $195 billion in FY2025 — while acknowledging gaps for 2021 and 2023 in that reporting [1]. This version treats 2022 as the start of a pronounced upward trend culminating in record figures by 2025. That narrative emphasizes momentum rather than a return to 2021 levels, and it is buttressed by contemporaneous reporting that notes record monthly customs duties in 2025 and Treasury commentary projecting very large collections [3] [1]. Yet, like the $80 billion claim, the 2024–2025 numbers are presented in the supplied analyses without consistent year-by-year linkage to 2021–2023 in a single tabulation, leaving questions about how 2023 fits into the trajectory.
4. Cross-source consistency and where facts converge
Despite disagreements about 2023, the supplied materials converge on several points: tariff revenue rose sharply by 2024–2025 compared with earlier years, and 2022 stands out as a relatively large year compared with pre-2022 baselines [1] [3]. Several sources also note that tariff collections historically constitute a modest share of overall federal revenue and that coverage and reporting methods (e.g., customs duties series, FRED categorization) matter when comparing year totals [6] [7] [4]. Where the analyses align is not the exact 2023 figure but the directional story — 2022 was larger than many prior years and 2024–2025 saw exceptional increases — while the specific 2023 number remains ambiguous in the provided set.
5. What’s needed to settle the question definitively
To resolve the discrepancy, a single primary-data reference is required: the official customs duties totals from the Treasury or the Bureau of Economic Analysis for calendar-year or fiscal-year 2021–2023 presented in a contiguous table. None of the supplied summaries includes that definitive table; some point to FRED series or sectoral trackers but note the absence of explicit 2023 figures in their extracts [6] [4]. Obtaining the underlying monthly or annual customs duties series and clarifying whether figures are fiscal-year or calendar-year would remove ambiguity and allow a clear statement of whether 2023 matched 2021 at $80 billion, sat between 2021 and the 2022 spike, or followed a different pattern. The existing evidence set cannot definitively answer the original comparative question without that primary accounting table [6] [1].