What are projections for US tariff revenue under current trade policies?

1. The headline numbers: multiple credible estimates, wide dispersion

Independent fiscal modelers and government scorekeepers produce divergent near‑term figures: the Penn Wharton Budget Model projects about $323 billion in tariff revenue in 2026 ^[5][2], the Tax Policy Center estimates roughly $247 billion in 2026 and about $2.3 trillion across fiscal years 2026–2035 ^[3], the Tax Foundation’s updated simulation puts 2026 revenue lower at about $191 billion and an extra $1.2 trillion over the next decade from IEEPA tariffs specifically ^[1], and the Congressional Budget Office incorporated tariff changes into its baseline and has reported tariff changes that would reduce deficits by roughly $3.0 trillion over its projection window (a reflection of the mix of revenue and modeled effects) ^[4][6].

2. What explains the spread between projections

The variation stems chiefly from differences in (a) treatment of behavioral effects—how much import volumes fall when duties rise and how much importers avoid or shift sourcing—which the Penn Wharton model explicitly separates into mechanical and behavioral revenue components ^[2]; (b) assumptions about offsets to income and payroll tax receipts (non‑tariff tax offsets of roughly 25% are commonly applied by analysts and the JCT), which lower net budgetary gains from tariffs ^[7]; and (c) whether models incorporate retaliatory tariffs, ongoing negotiations and exemptions, and legal risk that could invalidate collections or prompt refunds — factors emphasized by the Tax Foundation and CBO ^[1][4].

3. Recent collections and the short‑term trajectory

Actual tariff receipts jumped sharply in 2025 — estimates range from roughly $216.7 billion (Customs and Border Protection figure cited by the American Action Forum) to about $287 billion reported by Federal Reserve Richmond analysis of Treasury daily data — reflecting both new duties and faster collections in late 2025 ^[5][8]; monthly flows showed peaks above $30 billion in late 2025, but several forecasters note month‑to‑month volatility that clouds simple extrapolation into 2026 ^[9][7].

4. Legal and policy uncertainty that could alter projections materially

The Supreme Court review of the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose many of the tariffs presents a binary risk: if several duties are struck down, the administration may lose authority to collect or keep those revenues and could be forced to refund or reimpose duties under other statutes — an outcome flagged by the New York Times and echoed in CBO and JP Morgan commentary as a major uncertainty for 2026 projections ^[10][4][11].

5. Economic feedbacks and who ultimately pays

Beyond headline receipts, analysts uniformly stress that tariffs are a tax on domestic consumers and businesses, and that behavioral responses—supply‑chain shifts, import substitution, and retaliatory duties abroad—will reduce revenue over time and impose economic costs that offset fiscal gains; the Tax Foundation, Tax Policy Center and others estimate sizable household burdens per year and project declining revenues as importers and buyers adjust ^[1][3][5].

6. Verdict and caveats for using these projections

The best current reading is that 2026 tariff revenue will be substantial relative to pre‑2025 norms and most analysts place it in the low‑to‑mid hundreds of billions of dollars, but the precise figure depends heavily on model assumptions about behavioral responses, legal outcomes, and foreign retaliation; thus policymakers and forecasts should treat point estimates as conditional scenarios not hard predictions, and remain alert to rapid revisions as court rulings, exemptions, and negotiations evolve ^[2][4][10].