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How has the U.S. top 1% income threshold changed from 2010 to 2023?
Executive Summary
The various analyses provided disagree sharply on the numeric change in the U.S. top 1% income threshold between 2010 and 2023, producing two dominant narratives: one places the 2023 threshold near $353,000 and implies modest growth from 2010, while another reports a substantially higher 2023 threshold of $804,000, implying a large increase from about $344,000 in 2010; both conclusions rely on different datasets and definitions of “top 1%” [1] [2]. This review extracts those competing claims, highlights gaps and methodological differences in the supplied analyses, and shows that the question cannot be answered definitively from the material provided without reconciling data definitions and sources [3] [4].
1. Two Competing Numbers — Small Rise or Massive Jump?
The materials present two conflicting 2023 thresholds for the top 1% that drive divergent interpretations of change since 2010. One analysis reports a 2023 threshold of $353,318, with year-by-year increases such as $322,973 in 2022 and $297,782 in 2021, implying a moderate upward trend from 2010 levels [1]. By contrast, a separate analysis lists a 2023 threshold of $804,000, paired with an asserted 2010 threshold near $344,000, which implies a very large increase in the top 1% cutoff over the period [2]. Both figures are presented as data-driven, but they appear to reflect different measures of income (household vs. individual, pre-tax vs. annual wages, or different survey frames), so the apparent disagreement reflects measurement choices rather than arithmetic error [3] [5].
2. Why Definitions Matter — Whose “1%” Are We Counting?
The supplied analyses indicate that methodological differences explain much of the discrepancy: one dataset appears tied to household income deciles or BLS-style tables that may report income before taxes by household percentiles, while the other appears to report individual top-1% income by year or top-earner wages [1] [2]. The presence of references to “Table H-1” and historical Excel files suggests one source aggregates household or tax-unit thresholds, while another compiles individual average or median incomes for the top 1%, which are not directly comparable without conversion or harmonization [3] [5]. The analyses also note that some datasets emphasize average wages among the top 1% rather than the cutoff threshold, further complicating direct comparisons [5].
3. What the Analyses Agree On — Top Incomes Rose, But By How Much Is Unclear
Despite numeric disagreement, the supplied material converges on a qualitative point: incomes at the top grew faster than incomes lower in the distribution from 2010 through the early 2020s. Multiple analyses note long-term gains for the top one percent and even faster growth for the top 0.1 percent since 1990, with top-1% wages described as having risen substantially since 1979 and across the 2010–2023 window [6] [5] [7]. That consensus supports the conclusion that the top of the distribution experienced notable increases, but the magnitude and interpretation vary because some sources report thresholds while others report average or total incomes for the top group [4].
4. Gaps in the Evidence — Missing Harmonization and Dates
The analyses reveal important missing elements needed to reconcile the numbers: explicit statements of whether figures are for individuals or households, whether they are pre-tax or post-tax, calendar year versus fiscal year, and whether values are nominal or inflation-adjusted. Several analyses explicitly state that the provided sources “do not directly state” the 2010–2023 change or point to Excel tables where thresholds may be computed, indicating data extraction rather than final reconciliation [3] [4]. One analysis cites average top-1% wages for 2019 and 2023 that are similar, suggesting different metrics can yield different impressions even within the same period [5].
5. Bottom Line and What’s Needed to Resolve It
From the supplied materials, it is not possible to deliver a single, definitive numeric change from 2010 to 2023 for the top 1% without choosing and documenting a specific metric: household vs. individual, threshold vs. average, and nominal vs. real dollars. To resolve the discrepancy, analysts should specify the population unit and income definition, extract the 2010 and 2023 values from the same dataset (e.g., a consistent BLS or tax-based table), and report inflation-adjusted values; only then will the reported increase — whether from roughly $344k to $804k (large) or from sub-$300k to ~$353k (moderate) — be comparable and defensible [1] [2] [3].