What about tariff money?

1. How much money are tariffs actually raising right now?

Customs and tariff receipts jumped sharply in 2025 — federal collections reported for FY2025 ranged from about $195 billion in customs duties to broader DHS customs, taxes and fees figures cited at $287 billion for the calendar year — and preliminary FY2026 monthly tallies show continued high flows ^{[4] [5] [6]}. Multiple trackers update daily or monthly using Treasury and Customs data; they show large year‑over‑year increases but variable totals depending on whether one counts narrow customs duties, broader fees, or temporary refunds and exclusions ^{[7] [8] [6]}.

2. Forecasts diverge, but the decade tally is large on paper

Budget and tax analysts project multitrillion‑dollar gross revenue from the suite of tariffs over 2026–2035 — estimates span roughly $1.6 trillion to $2.8 trillion on different methodologies (Tax Foundation, Tax Policy Center, Yale/Budget Lab, Penn‑Wharton) — yet “dynamic” estimates that account for slower growth and retaliation cut those totals substantially ^{[2] [9] [10] [3]}. The Tax Foundation’s conventional vs. dynamic split and Penn‑Wharton’s behavioral adjustments illustrate how sensitive long‑run revenue is to changes in import behavior, substitution, and macroeconomic feedbacks ^{[2] [3]}.

3. Who pays — and what revenue actually means for households and firms?

Analysts consistently conclude that U.S. businesses and consumers bear the vast majority of tariffs’ economic burden because importers pass costs forward in prices or accept lower margins; the Tax Policy Center estimates an average household tariff burden in 2026 around $2,100 under current policy assumptions ^{[9] [1]}. Moreover, some economists note that mechanical revenue figures overstate net fiscal benefit because higher consumer prices reduce real incomes and thus other tax bases, prompting estimates that incorporate income/payroll tax offsets of roughly 25% for excise‑type taxes ^{[7] [2]}.

4. Legal uncertainty and reversals could erase a large slice of the money

A significant portion of new collections stems from tariffs asserted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), and courts have already found many of those measures unlawful; appeals and a pending Supreme Court review create real risk that some collections will be reversed or refunded, leaving the ultimate net fiscal gain uncertain ^{[4] [11]}. Fiscal analysts warn lawmakers to treat recent collections cautiously because final legal outcomes could reduce or eliminate the apparent windfall ^{[4] [12]}.

5. Budget impact versus economic cost — the tradeoff lawmakers face

CBO and independent budget analysts show tariffs can reduce projected deficits by raising revenue on paper, but they also warn that tariff‑induced slower growth and higher consumer costs reduce long‑term output and can raise unemployment modestly, which erodes other revenue sources and raises programmatic costs — so the net macro‑fiscal effect is smaller and more negative when dynamic responses and retaliation are included ^{[12] [13] [10]}. Proposals to use tariff receipts for “dividends” or tax cuts face scrutiny because most designs would cost more than the revenues generated in early years, according to Tax Foundation and others ^[14].

6. What to watch next

The key variables to monitor are Supreme Court rulings on tariff authority, Treasury and Customs monthly receipts, and updated CBO/Budget Office dynamic projections; shifts in import behavior and any retaliatory tariffs abroad will materially change both near‑term receipts and decade‑long estimates, while policy choices about exemptions or refunds will determine whether current collections translate into lasting revenue ^{[4] [7] [12]}.