When will gold hit 10000 per ounce
Executive summary
Gold reaching $10,000 per ounce is a headline-grabbing possibility offered by a mix of mainstream strategists, boutique analysts and AI-driven models, but there is no consensus date; the bulk of reputable forecasts cluster around a multi‑year horizon—roughly 2026–2030 under bullish scenarios—with some prominent voices specifically pointing to 2028–2029 as plausible if current trends continue [1] [2] [3] [4]. Less conventional AI and “black swan” scenarios project a far earlier leap (even April 2026), but those claims are conditional and represent extreme tail-risk scenarios rather than consensus market expectations [5] [6] [7].
1. The mainstream baseline: $5k–$6k first, $10k later if conditions persist
Major banks and institutional research largely see intermediate milestones before any $10,000 call: JPMorgan and several banks expect prices toward $5,000 by late 2026 and $6,000 as a longer‑term possibility, driven by central‑bank buying, investor demand and constrained mine supply—factors that would need to continue or intensify for a move to $10,000 [4] [8]. Yardeni Research, cited repeatedly in the reporting, frames $5,000 in 2026 and $10,000 by the end of the decade as a continuation of the current trajectory rather than an immediate inevitability [1] [9].
2. The “by 2028–2029” narrative: trajectory meets momentum
Several outlets relay a clear timeline: if the 2023–2025 rally persists, analysts such as Ed Yardeni estimate a path to $10,000 between mid‑2028 and early 2029 [1], and other summaries echo an end‑of‑decade target [2] [3]. These projections rest on extrapolating record central‑bank purchases, continued ETF/investor inflows and geopolitical or monetary shocks that would weaken fiat currencies—conditions that make the $10,000 target a scenario contingent on persistent structural trends rather than a mechanical inevitability [1] [3] [4].
3. The outlier scenarios: AI models and black‑swan mechanics
A cluster of attention‑grabbing predictions comes from AI models and “black swan” thought experiments: some AI forecasts projected a surge to $10,000 as early as April 2026 by combining record central bank buying, collapsing real rates and currency debasement [5] [6]. Saxo Bank and others frame $10,000 as the outcome of extreme events—for example, a collapse in digital safe havens like Bitcoin after a technological shock—illustrating that $10,000 is theoretically reachable but relies on rare, high‑impact disruptions [7].
4. Contrarian and cautionary takes: require “extreme market conditions”
Not all analysts accept $10,000 as a reachable near‑term price; several forecasting services and commentators flag more modest peaks—$4,500–$7,000 through the late 2020s—and argue $10,000 would demand extreme monetary debasement, systemic de‑dollarization, or a sustained reallocation of hundreds of billions into gold reserves [8] [10] [11]. These voices serve as a counterbalance to sensational headlines, stressing that many forecasts assume policy moves and geopolitical developments that are far from settled [10] [8].
5. How to read the disagreement: agendas, models and media framing
The divergence in timelines flows from differing assumptions: some models extrapolate current momentum and central bank behavior, others run stress tests that assume monetary collapse or rapid de‑risking of paper assets; AI outputs can amplify sensational outcomes without always communicating probability or model limitations [1] [5] [7]. Media pieces and dealer blogs that emphasize exact dates (April 2026, “within three years,” or “by 2050”) often package conditional scenarios as headlines; readers should treat single‑date claims as contingent narratives rather than forecast certainties [5] [2] [12].
Conclusion — the direct answer
Based on the reporting, the most defensible short answer is: gold could plausibly reach $10,000 per ounce sometime between about 2028 and the end of the decade if current bullish drivers persist and intensify, but earlier jumps (e.g., April 2026) are tied to highly conditional AI or black‑swan scenarios and are not the consensus view among large financial institutions [1] [2] [5] [4]. The range of expert opinion is wide; hitting $10,000 is possible but not inevitable, and timing hinges on extreme shifts in monetary policy, reserve allocation and geopolitical risk that remain uncertain [3] [8] [10].