Will the 2025 tax refunds be delayed due to current national and global events
Executive summary
Most taxpayers should not expect a blanket delay to 2025 tax refunds: the IRS continued to process and pay electronically filed, error-free refunds even during funding lapses, while the agency’s investments in e-filing mean the majority of refunds are issued quickly [1] [2] [3]. However, several specific national and operational factors — reduced staffing, backloged and suspended returns, increased scrutiny of certain credits, identity‑verification processing and transitions away from paper checks — make measurable delays likely for distinct groups of filers [4] [5] [6].
1. How refunds are being processed and why most people still get money quickly
The IRS has emphasized that automated systems will continue to accept electronic returns and pay refunds that can be processed automatically and direct deposited, and during operational lapses it explicitly said refunds for electronically filed, error‑free 1040s would continue to be paid [1] [7]. Historically, most refunds are issued within about 21 days for e‑filed returns with direct deposit, and the IRS issued more than 93% of 2025 refunds by direct deposit — a structural reason why the bulk of taxpayers see timely refunds [2] [3].
2. Who will face delays — the predictable choke points
Delays are concentrated in identifiable categories: returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit or Additional Child Tax Credit are subject to statutory timing requirements that push refunds past mid‑February, identity‑theft victims face “persistent” delays, and returns flagged for potential frivolous credits or other reviews can be suspended pending further checks — the National Taxpayer Advocate and reporting both document millions of suspended or slow cases in 2025 [4] [8] [6]. Paper filers also remain vulnerable: the IRS’s failed Paperless Processing goals and the continuing digitization effort mean paper returns can take weeks longer to enter the system [5].
3. National events and agency capacity: shutdowns, staffing and policy shifts matter
Operational disruptions such as government shutdowns and staffing cuts materially affect the IRS’s capacity to process exceptions and correspondence: the agency’s workforce dropped roughly 26% early in 2025 and about 13 million returns were “suspended” for additional review, translating into refund delays for affected taxpayers [4]. During funding lapses the IRS limited operations to critical automated services — e‑filing, certain automated refunds and online tools remained available but live assistance and paper processing were reduced — meaning complex cases piled up until operations resumed [1] [9] [7].
4. New tax law complexity and technical problems add friction
Major, first‑time tax law changes that hit 2025 returns increased the chance of errors and manual reviews as filers and preparers adapted to new deductions and credits, and experts warned that those changes could generate “hiccups” or a slight delay to the filing season kickoff that would ripple into refund timing for early filers [3] [10]. Separate technical slips — such as delays in processing some electronic payments — have produced account notices and required additional handling, which can temporarily misstate balances and slow downstream refund reconciliations [11].
5. Practical outlook: who should be worried and what to do
The most likely scenario is a mixed outcome: the majority of electronic, error‑free returns with direct deposit will continue to be processed quickly, but taxpayers who file on paper, claim certain refundable credits, have identity verification issues, owe offsets or are impacted by manual reviews should expect delays and longer waits this season [2] [6] [4]. Taxpayers can reduce risk by filing electronically, providing banking information for direct deposit, avoiding avoidable errors, and monitoring IRS online tools; however, these sources cannot predict future political or global events that might widen operational disruptions, and reporting does not allow a definitive forecast beyond the documented operational patterns [3] [5].