Will silver prices rise into 3 orv4 figure spot prices?
Executive summary
Analyst consensus and mainstream bank forecasts in the sources cluster silver’s likely near-term path in the mid‑$30s to mid‑$50s per ounce, not in three‑ or four‑figure territory; HSBC raised its 2025 average to $38.56 and expects a wide $45–$53/oz range for late 2025 [1]. A minority of highly bullish forecasts and CEO soundbites project $100+ [2] [3], but most mainstream models and survey means remain far below triple digits [4] [5].
1. Where most professional forecasters place silver now — mid‑$30s to mid‑$50s
Major bank and institutional forecasts cited place 2025–2026 silver averages in the high‑$30s to mid‑$50s: HSBC raised its 2025 average to $38.56/oz and sees a $45–$53/oz range for the remainder of 2025 with $40–$55/oz next year as a plausible band [1]. UBS and Bank of America quoted by market commentators project targets in roughly the $50s–$65/oz area [5]. These are the price ranges that large-market participants and many modelling services are using as their base cases [5] [1].
2. The bullish outliers — who argues for $100+ and why
A small set of bullish voices and algorithmic models project dramatic upside. Some algorithmic/ML services and private forecasters have published trajectories showing silver moving to $58, $98, $122 and beyond over multi‑year horizons [6] [7]. Individual CEOs and commentators — notably the CEO of First Majestic Silver — publicly predict $100/oz or higher; media pieces highlight these statements as notable but outlying views [3]. DeVere Group describes $100 as an outlier forecast relative to the LBMA analyst mean of ~$32.86 at the start of 2025 [2].
3. Market drivers that could push prices higher — supply, ETFs, industrial demand
Sources point to clear mechanisms that could sustain a rally: tight visible exchange inventories, renewed ETF accumulation, expected supply deficits in 2025, and durable industrial demand from solar and electronics. TradingEconomics notes silver was hovering above $57/oz amid low inventories, ETF inflows and expectations of Fed easing — all factors that amplify upside pressure [8]. Capital.com and others also highlight that weaker dollars, narrowing real yields and ETF demand are the usual catalysts for higher precious‑metal prices [5].
4. Why three or four‑figure spot prices are not the mainstream expectation
Most formal forecasts and consensus surveys cited remain conservative compared with triple digits. LBMA‑polled analysts and mainstream houses produced mean forecasts well below $100, and even bullish bank upgrades bootstrap to the $40–$65/oz range rather than $100+ [4] [1] [5]. DeVere Group explicitly calls $100 a preserve of the most bullish forecasters and notes these are outliers to the mean [2].
5. Algorithmic models and AI forecasts — a mixed signal
Several machine‑driven services produce wide-ranging, sometimes highly bullish multi‑year trajectories (Gov Capital, other algorithmic forecasters, AI‑based roundup on BullionVault). BullionVault’s compilation shows AI models giving different outputs: ChatGPT‑4 Turbo’s AI exercise produced mid‑$40s to mid‑$50s highs for some scenarios, while other algorithmic platforms show more extreme rallies. These models are informative but produce divergent outcomes depending on inputs and assumptions [9] [10] [7].
6. Risks and catalysts that could change the path quickly
Available sources identify key potential flashpoints: a sustained US rate‑cut cycle or dollar weakness could lift prices, while rebuilding London inventories or moderation in gold could cap gains [1] [8]. Geopolitical shocks and industrial demand shifts (solar, electronics) are cited as upside catalysts; conversely, any substantial physical supply response or profit‑taking could blunt rallies [8] [1]. Sources do not provide an exhaustive stress‑test of every shock — not found in current reporting.
7. How to read the disagreement — consensus versus narrative
Reporting shows a clear split: mainstream banks and analyst surveys form a consensus in the low‑to‑mid tens to mid‑$50s, while algorithmic services and bullish industry figures provide narrative fuel for $100+ scenarios [1] [5] [2] [3]. The agenda behind bullish CEO statements or bullish algorithm sellers is sometimes promotional — sources highlight these as outliers rather than consensus forecasters [2] [3].
Bottom line
Based on the available sources, the most defensible expectation among mainstream analysts is continued upside from 2024–2025 levels into the mid‑$30s–$50s per ounce driven by tight inventories, ETF flows and industrial demand [1] [8] [5]. Triple‑digit spot silver remains the position of a vocal minority and algorithmic outliers; those views exist in the reporting but are not the consensus [2] [3].