Fact check: What federal services and agencies are affected by the 2025 government shutdown and for how long?

1. Why this shutdown is hurting services now — the human and financial toll

The immediate impact is both personnel and fiscal: contingency plans outline that around 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed daily, producing roughly $400 million in daily costs and widespread interruption of services that rely on discretionary appropriations ^[1]. These estimates come from agency shutdown plans published at the start of the fiscal lapse and have been reinforced by later reporting placing the workforce impact between 1.4 million and several hundred thousand depending on counting methods, with many employees either furloughed or working without pay ^{[1] [4]}. The fiscal disruption also reverberates through the economy: analysts note weekly GDP impacts and the strain on federal contractors and beneficiaries whose incomes and services depend on timely funding, which is increasingly evident as the shutdown stretches into multiple weeks ^[4]. The figures illustrate both immediate budgetary losses and downstream economic risks.

2. Which agencies continue essential operations — funding rules and exceptions

Some federal functions continue because they are either mandatory programs, self-funded, or designated essential, including the U.S. Postal Service (self-funded), Department of Health and Human Services (public health obligations), the Department of Justice (law enforcement), and General Services Administration operations necessary for government continuity ^[5]. Agency contingency plans show that departments decide which activities qualify as “excepted” — meaning staff continue to work without pay — and which are “non-excepted” and therefore furloughed, producing an uneven patchwork of services across the government ^{[6] [5]}. This creates practical distinctions: airports and air traffic control remain operational because of safety and mandatory funding, while discretionary programs and agency administrative functions pause, leaving essential safety and law enforcement functions intact but many other services suspended ^[5].

3. Social safety nets at risk — SNAP, WIC, and nutrition programs teeter

The most acute programmatic risk centers on federal nutrition assistance: the Department of Agriculture’s SNAP payments and related programs like WIC rely on appropriations and reserve authority, leaving them vulnerable to delayed payments if the shutdown persists ^{[2] [7]}. Multiple reports warn that beneficiaries could see disruptions in November if Congressional action is not taken, and 25 states and D.C. have already sued the administration over plans to withhold SNAP funding, signaling legal and political escalation around food aid ^{[2] [3]}. States differ in their ability to bridge gaps — some are stepping in to cover benefits temporarily — but the federal pause threatens millions who depend on timely monthly disbursements, highlighting the real-world consequences for families and state budgets ^{[8] [2]}.

4. Education, labor, and enforcement agencies — who's furloughed and what's paused

Departments such as Education, Labor, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, and the National Labor Relations Board report a mix of furloughs and excepted functions, meaning case processing, grant oversight, and enforcement actions slow or stop, according to agency contingency statements ^[6]. These suspensions affect administrative decisions, oversight of federally funded programs, and labor relations processes; ongoing investigations and grant disbursements may be delayed, creating backlogs that persist after funding resumes. The uneven operational status across agencies produces cascading effects on states, schools, and employers that rely on timely federal action, with the net result that regulatory and programmatic support grinds down even as core safety operations carry on ^{[6] [9]}.

5. Politics and projections — why duration remains unpredictable

The shutdown’s continuation into late October and the failure of Senate votes to advance funding underscore the political impasse: legislative attempts to pass stopgap measures repeatedly failed, and the standoff has entered its fourth week with no clear path to resolution in the near term ^{[3] [4]}. Political actors have divergent priorities — disputes over ACA marketplace subsidies and other policy riders are central — and the administration retains discretion over which services to deem essential, which shapes operational outcomes but not the underlying funding gap ^{[9] [3]}. Lawsuits by states and public pressure over missed paychecks add external pressure, yet as long as Congress cannot muster the votes, the shutdown’s length will hinge on political negotiations rather than administrative technicalities.

6. What to watch next — timing, legal moves, and economic indicators

Key near-term markers include Congressional votes to reopen appropriations, state litigation outcomes challenging administrative funding decisions, and Treasury and agency notices about benefit cut-off dates for programs like SNAP and payroll timelines for federal workers ^{[3] [2]}. Economic indicators such as weekly jobless claims among federal contractors and short-term GDP estimates will show the fiscal ripple effects if the shutdown lengthens; the longer it persists, the greater the likelihood of downstream economic drag and longer recovery of administrative backlogs. The interaction of legal challenges, legislative votes, and program payment deadlines will determine both which services remain disrupted and how long the interruptions last ^{[4] [8]}.