What is the projected 2026 COLA percentage for federal GS employees?
Executive summary
Available reporting shows there are two different but related numbers to watch for 2026: the COLA for federal retirees (annuitants) — announced as 2.8% for CSRS and effectively 2.0% for many FERS annuitants — and a separate proposed across‑the‑board pay adjustment for active General Schedule (GS) employees that several outlets summarize as a 1% base increase or even a proposed pay freeze depending on the source [1] [2] [3] [4]. Sources do not present a single “2026 GS COLA” figure because retiree COLAs and active‑employee pay actions are calculated and decided by different processes [3] [5].
1. Two distinct concepts: retiree COLA vs. active GS pay raise
Journalists and advocates repeatedly emphasize that the annual “COLA” commonly discussed in October refers to Social Security and federal retiree annuity adjustments — not automatically to the base pay of active GS employees. The Social Security/retiree COLA for 2026 was reported as 2.8% for CSRS with FERS annuitants receiving a reduced “diet” COLA of 2.0% under existing rules [1] [6] [5]. Meanwhile, active GS pay adjustments are proposed through the President’s budget, OPM and Congress and have been described by many outlets as a separate 1% proposed base pay increase or, in other reporting, effectively frozen depending on which document you read [2] [3] [4].
2. What the retiree numbers mean and why FERS sees less
Multiple outlets explain how the 2026 retiree adjustment works: CSRS annuities generally receive the full COLA — reported at 2.8% for 2026 — while FERS annuitants receive a limited adjustment that equals the full COLA if it is 2% or less, is capped at 2% when the full COLA falls between 2% and 3%, and would be reduced by one point if the COLA exceeds 3% [5] [6]. Federal News Network, NTEU and GovExec cite that rule and report the practical outcome for 2026: CSRS +2.8%, FERS +2.0% [6] [7] [5].
3. Active GS pay proposals: 1% or a freeze — competing narratives
Reporting diverges on active employee pay for 2026. Several sources summarize the President’s alternative pay plan as proposing a 1% across‑the‑board base pay increase for GS employees with locality pay frozen at 2025 levels [2] [8]. Other analyses and budget documents characterize the FY2026 proposal as a pay freeze — no across‑the‑board increase in the baseline budget — and warn agencies to expect effectively flat pay absent congressional action [4] [9]. The net takeaway: the administration’s proposal and available commentary differ, and Congress can alter the outcome [3] [4].
4. How the government calculates GS raises and why projections vary
OPM and the Federal Salary Council use economic measures (Employment Cost Index, locality comparisons) and statutory limits to shape GS pay tables. One OPM‑linked recommendation paper signals technical calculations that could point to a larger base adjustment (an ECI‑derived number cited as 3.3% in a model), but political decisions, budget proposals and locality freezes ultimately determine the final tables published by OPM [10] [3]. This explains why analysts produce different projections: some extrapolate economic indicators, others summarize political proposals [10] [3].
5. Stakes and perspectives: unions, retirees and fiscal policymakers
Union voices and retiree advocates frame 2026 as a year where policy choices matter: unions warn that even a “flat” year erodes purchasing power if inflation runs higher than the proposed raise (quoted concern about a 3% cost‑of‑living rise), while retiree groups decry the FERS “diet” mechanism that produces unequal outcomes between CSRS and FERS annuitants [11] [12] [5]. Policymakers’ implicit agenda in proposing a smaller active‑employee increase or freezing locality pay is fiscal restraint; advocates’ agenda is protecting real wages and benefits [4] [11].
6. What you should watch next and limitations in reporting
For a definitive GS pay change for 2026, monitor OPM pay tables and Congress’s appropriations/compensation legislation; for retiree COLAs, watch the Social Security Administration and OPM notices that announce the final figures and payment timing [1] [3]. Available sources do not mention a single consolidated “2026 COLA percentage for federal GS employees” because retiree COLAs and active GS pay adjustments are separate processes and reported differently [1] [2] [3].
Bottom line: retiree COLAs were reported as CSRS +2.8% and FERS +2.0% for 2026, while active GS employees face competing narratives — a proposed 1% base increase in some reporting versus descriptions of a pay freeze in others — with final action depending on OPM implementation and Congress [1] [6] [2] [4] [3].