Which ACA premium tax credits are scheduled to expire at the end of 2026?

1. What exactly is expiring: the “enhanced” premium tax credits

The feature set that expires is the ARPA-era enhancement to the ACA premium tax credit: larger subsidy amounts, lower required premium‑contribution caps for households, and expanded eligibility above the prior 400% of federal poverty (making some households above 400% FPL newly eligible). Those temporary changes were extended through tax years 2023–2025 and the statutory sunset for the enhanced provisions is January 1, 2026 (which practitioners and analysts describe as an end‑of‑2025 expiration) ^{[1] [5]}.

2. Why the dates look like “end of 2025” but also “January 1, 2026”

Congress’s FY2022 reconciliation extension covered the 2023–2025 tax years and set the sunset at January 1, 2026, so policy summaries and press accounts commonly say the enhanced credits “expire at the end of 2025” while legal texts note the formal effective date of January 1, 2026 — both describe the same statutory cutoff for plan year 2026 unless Congress intervenes ^{[1] [2]}.

3. Who benefits from the enhanced credits today — and who loses first if they lapse

The enhancements both increased subsidy amounts for lower‑income enrollees and extended subsidies above 400% FPL. KFF and Bipartisan Policy Center explain that many enrollees at 100–150% FPL and those between 150–250% FPL receive large benefits now, while people above 400% will lose eligibility entirely; older enrollees and residents of high‑premium locales would face the biggest dollar hits ^{[5] [6]}.

4. What analysts and insurers are already assuming for 2026 pricing

Insurer rate filings and independent analyses are already incorporating an assumed loss of the enhanced credits into 2026 pricing. KFF and the Peterson‑KFF tracker found insurer filings showing an average additional premium increase tied to the expectation of expiration (about 4 percentage points in early filings) and projected national average out‑of‑pocket premium increases of roughly 114% if enhancements lapse ^{[7] [2]}.

5. Projected scale of coverage and economic impacts

Multiple estimates show large effects: KFF and other health‑policy groups anticipate substantial premium shocks in 2026; analyses cited by Thomson Reuters and the Commonwealth Fund reference projections of millions of people losing coverage (CBO and Urban Institute estimates cited in reporting range in the millions) and downstream effects such as higher uncompensated care and macroeconomic impacts like job losses ^{[4] [8]}.

6. Policy debate and short‑term fixes under discussion

Commentary and Health Affairs coverage indicate political negotiations over short‑term extensions or modifications were active as 2026 open enrollment proceeded; options discussed include a short extension to buy time for broader reform and marketplace operational fixes, but those legislative outcomes were unsettled in the reporting ^[9].

7. Limitations in available reporting and what’s not said

Available sources detail the expiration date, mechanics of the enhancement, insurer assumptions, and projected impacts, but they do not provide final congressional action outcomes in these excerpts — i.e., available sources do not mention whether Congress ultimately extended, modified, or replaced the enhanced credits for 2026 in the materials provided ^{[1] [9]}.

Bottom line: the temporary ARPA/IRA enhancements to ACA premium tax credits are slated to end with the 2025 tax year (effective January 1, 2026), restoring pre‑enhancement subsidy rules unless Congress acts; analysts and insurer filings expect large premium increases and significant coverage losses in 2026 if no extension is enacted ^{[1] [3] [7]}.