What is the annual ACA subsidy for a family of 4 with annual income of $31,000
Executive summary
A precise annual ACA premium subsidy (premium tax credit) for a family of four earning $31,000 cannot be calculated from the reporting provided because the subsidy depends on whether the household qualifies for Medicaid in their state, the local benchmark (Silver) plan cost in their ZIP code, and whether enhanced credits are in effect — all details not supplied in the sources [1] [2] [3]. What can be stated with confidence is that $31,000 is essentially at the federal poverty level (FPL) for a family of four used for 2026 calculations, so the family’s eligibility and likely outcome fall into two sharply different scenarios depending on the state and program rules [4] [5].
1. Where $31,000 sits against the poverty line and why that matters
For Marketplace and Medicaid rules the relevant benchmark shown in the reporting is an FPL for a family of four of roughly $31,200 (the 2025 guideline used for 2026 calculations cited by KFF), which makes $31,000 about 99–100% of FPL — a critical inflection point because federal rules treat households near 100% FPL differently based on state Medicaid expansion and subsidy formulas [4] [5].
2. Two divergent paths: Medicaid in expansion states vs. Marketplace eligibility
If the household lives in a state that expanded Medicaid, people with incomes below the state’s Medicaid threshold (generally about 138% of FPL for adults) are directed to Medicaid rather than Marketplace subsidies; that outcome means no ACA premium tax credit would apply because Medicaid — not a Marketplace plan — would be the program covering the family [1] [5]. By contrast, in states that did not expand Medicaid the family could fall into the so‑called “coverage gap” or — depending on how state rules interact with federal guidance — might be routed to the Marketplace and thus potentially qualify for a premium tax credit; the reporting shows Marketplace subsidy eligibility is typically determined for incomes roughly between 100% and 400% of FPL [6] [5].
3. How the premium tax credit would be computed if the family is Marketplace‑eligible
When a household is eligible for a premium tax credit, the credit equals the cost of the local benchmark Silver plan minus the household’s expected contribution, where expected contribution is computed as a percentage of income tied to their FPL band (the formula and benchmark dependence are emphasized repeatedly across calculators and guides) [2] [7]. The reporting makes clear that without the family’s ZIP code and the local Silver plan price it is impossible to convert the family’s expected percentage-of-income contribution into a single dollar subsidy figure [1] [7] [4].
4. The role of temporary “enhanced” credits and uncertainty after 2025
Several sources stress that enhanced premium tax credits enacted in recent years were scheduled to expire at the end of 2025 unless Congress extends them; the size of a 2026 subsidy could therefore be materially different depending on whether enhanced credits remain in effect — an additional source of uncertainty that prevents a single definitive annual subsidy number from the available reporting [3] [8].
5. Practical next steps and an illustrative frame for readers
Given the constraints in the reporting, the reliable guidance is procedural: determine whether the family qualifies for Medicaid in their state (if yes, Marketplace subsidy is not applicable) and, if Marketplace‑eligible, use a 2026‑updated subsidy calculator that requires ZIP code, ages, and the household MAGI to produce a monthly or annual premium tax credit estimate — the sources point to multiple up‑to‑date calculators (HealthInsurance.org, KFF, and several marketplace calculators) that provide this exact computation [1] [3] [4]. The mechanics to remember: subsidy = local benchmark premium − household expected contribution (calculated as a percent of income) and that percent varies by FPL band and by whether enhancements apply [2] [9].