Are measles cases increasing in the U. S.?
Executive summary
Yes: measles cases surged in the United States in 2025 to levels not seen in decades and the early 2026 data show continued transmission and multiple state outbreaks, meaning cases are higher now than in recent years and remain on an upward trajectory compared with 2024 [1] [2] [3]. Reporting systems differ in real‑time counts and jurisdictional updates, but public health agencies and major outlets agree that 2025 was a substantial spike and that 2026 has begun with ongoing outbreaks [4] [5] [1].
1. The scale of the recent rise: a one‑year jump that rewrote recent trends
In 2025 the U.S. recorded roughly 2,000+ confirmed measles cases—the highest annual total in about 30 years—up from just 285 cases in 2024, driven by dozens of outbreaks across dozens of jurisdictions and concentrated surges in states including Texas, Arizona and South Carolina [2] [3] [1]. Public health trackers and the CDC documented more than 2,000 cases and nearly 50 separate outbreaks in 2025, marking a sharp break from the low double‑ or triple‑digit counts that followed elimination-era control [3] [6].
2. Early 2026: continued outbreaks but differences in real‑time tallies
As of mid‑January 2026 the CDC reported 171 confirmed cases for the year so far across nine jurisdictions, while other trackers and state reports show larger or differently timed totals—Johns Hopkins’ tracker listed a higher short‑term count and South Carolina reported hundreds of cases tied to its local outbreak—illustrating reporting lags, jurisdictional updates and differing inclusion rules [4] [5] [7]. The mixed numbers do not contradict the direction of travel: multiple states are still seeing active transmission and some outbreaks expanded sharply in late 2025 into 2026 [7] [8].
3. Why experts say the rise happened—and why it can continue
Public health analyses attribute the resurgence to clusters of undervaccinated communities, falling community immunity in pockets, international and regional transmission, and hesitancy or confusing messaging around vaccines, all of which create fertile ground for measles’ highly contagious spread [6] [9] [10]. Officials note that measles’ contagiousness requires about 95% community vaccination for reliable protection; national averages mask much lower coverage in vulnerable communities that enabled sustained outbreaks in 2025 [11] [10].
4. The policy and status stakes: elimination status, surveillance and disagreements
The surge prompted formal scrutiny of the U.S. elimination status—PAHO/WHO reviews and state counts raised the possibility the U.S. could lose its “elimination” designation if uninterrupted transmission persisted—while some experts and CDC analyses in late 2025/early 2026 argued the nation might not formally lose status depending on linked transmission patterns [12] [13]. Simultaneously, some federal officials publicly minimized the symbolic loss as a “cost of doing business,” reflecting tensions between public messaging, political priorities and the operational realities of surveillance [5].
5. Bottom line and what the data do and don’t show
The factual record is clear that measles cases rose dramatically in 2025 and that early 2026 has seen ongoing outbreaks and additional reported cases, so measles activity is higher now than in recent years and not yet contained [1] [2] [4]. Limitations remain: real‑time case counts vary between CDC, state departments and independent trackers because of reporting delays and different inclusion criteria, so week‑to‑week totals can diverge even as the overall trend—a resurgence from 2024 lows—is unambiguous [5] [4] [10].