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What is the average Obamacare premium increase by state in recent years?
Executive summary
Available reporting shows two different ways to measure “average” Obamacare (ACA) premium changes: insurers’ requested rate changes (median filings) and the effect of federal subsidy policy on what consumers actually pay. KFF/Health System Tracker analyses put the median insurer-requested increase around 6–7% for recent filing years (6% for 2024, 7% for 2025) [1] [2], while KFF’s modeling of the lapse of enhanced premium tax credits projects consumers’ net premium payments could rise by roughly 114% on average if those credits expire — effectively more than doubling what many subsidized enrollees would pay [3] [4].
1. Two different “averages”: insurer rate filings vs. consumer out‑of‑pocket
Journalists and analysts often cite two separate metrics. One is the median or average percent increase insurers file with regulators for benchmark plans — a routine actuarial measure that recently clustered in the single digits (about 6% filed for 2024 and a 7% median request for 2025) [1] [2]. The other is the change in what subsidized consumers actually pay after tax credits; that figure can move sharply if Congress changes subsidy law. KFF projects that expiration of enhanced tax credits would raise subsidized enrollees’ premium payments by about 114% on average [3] [4].
2. Why filings show modest increases (7% range)
Insurer rate filings reflect expectations about medical cost trends such as hospital prices, drugs and utilization — the Health System Tracker/KFF review found a median “medical trend” around 7–10% in detailed filings and a median filed premium increase of roughly 7% for 2025 [2] [1]. Those filings are what states review when approving rates, and they capture insurers’ forward cost pressures rather than federal subsidy policy [2] [1].
3. Why consumer payments could spike dramatically (the role of enhanced tax credits)
Enhanced premium tax credits enacted during the pandemic have been masking much larger underlying price growth for many enrollees. KFF’s analysis and interactive tools show that if the enhanced credits expire, the average premium payment by subsidized enrollees would jump from about $888 in 2025 to roughly $1,904 in 2026 — a 114% increase in what those consumers pay out of pocket [3] [4] [5]. Media coverage echoes that potential jump and frames it as the immediate driver of higher bills for millions [6] [5].
4. State‑by‑state averages: limited uniform data in these sources
Available sources in this set do not provide a single, complete table of "average premium increase by state" for recent years. WorldPopulationReview offers state-level premium pages but does not appear here as a primary source of a consistent, year‑over‑year state series in the provided snippets [7]. KFF and CMS analyses typically publish county- and state‑level data in detailed reports, but the specific state-by-state percent changes are not enumerated in the excerpts supplied [1] [4]. In short: not found in current reporting provided here.
5. How to reconcile the headline “26%” and other national figures
Some outlets report a 26% average increase for 2026 premiums; that number reflects a specific national summary tied to posted 2026 plan rates and the impact of both insurer pricing and policy choices in that cycle [8] [9]. Other outlets and analysts stress the much larger effect on subsidized consumers if enhanced tax credits lapse (114% increase in net payments) — both statements can be true because they measure different things: list rate moves versus net consumer payments after subsidies [8] [4] [3].
6. Political and analytical disagreements to note
Coverage frames differ by outlet and purpose. Outlets emphasizing consumer pain and enrollment impacts highlight the KFF projection of doubled out‑of‑pocket costs if subsidies expire [3] [5]. Other coverage and insurer filings frame the story around more modest annual medical‑trend driven rate increases (about 6–7% median filings) [1] [2]. Some advocacy groups attribute portions of premium changes to policy choices; Medicare Rights Center cites KFF’s estimate that enhanced credits account for part of recent premium dynamics but flags other drivers too [10]. Readers should note these differing framings reflect different implicit agendas: consumer impact vs. insurer cost pressures vs. policy advocacy [3] [1] [10].
7. What to do if you want state‑level numbers
For a precise state-by-state recent‑years series, consult the full KFF or CMS rate‑change datasets and state rate‑review filings referenced in these analyses; the Health System Tracker/KFF briefs explain methodology and cite county/state data sources [2] [1]. The current bundle of excerpts does not include a comprehensive state table, so obtaining those primary KFF or CMS files (or state insurance department rate reviews) is the next step [1] [2].
Limitations and closing note: The sources provided document national medians and the outsized effect of subsidy expiration but do not give a complete state-by-state annual average series in these excerpts — readers seeking per‑state recent trends should consult full KFF/CMS datasets and state rate filings referenced above [1] [2] [4].