Billions in medical care stolen in Minnesota
Executive summary
Federal and state investigators describe an extensive fraud crisis in Minnesota’s safety-net programs that prosecutors and congressional leaders estimate could involve billions of dollars siphoned from Medicaid, child-care, food and housing programs; acting federal prosecutors have said the losses are “likely to reach into the billions” and some officials have cited figures around $9 billion or higher [1] [2] [3]. Those estimates are tied to audits of 14 “high‑risk” Medicaid programs that have billed roughly $18 billion since 2018, with prosecutors saying “half or more” of that amount may be fraudulent—though state leaders dispute some characterizations and investigations remain ongoing [3] [4].
1. Scope and scale: what the numbers mean and why they vary
Federal prosecutors and congressional committees have repeatedly used large round numbers—$9 billion is cited frequently, and some statements say fraud is “likely” to be in the billions—because investigations encompass dozens of schemes across multiple programs and long billing windows; First Assistant U.S. Attorney Joe Thompson told reporters the 14 audited Medicaid programs have billed $18 billion since 2018 and that “half or more” could be fraudulent, while hearings and committee statements have echoed $9 billion as an estimate tied to ongoing prosecutions [3] [2] [5]. Those headline figures are not a single, final tally of proven loss but an aggregation of suspected improper payments, alleged schemes and amounts billed to high‑risk programs that are still being audited and litigated [1] [3].
2. What schemes have been charged so far and examples of theft
Federal and state authorities have filed numerous indictments and charges across separate schemes; the Attorney General’s office in Minnesota announced a $3+ million charge against a Minneapolis home‑health provider accused of billing for services not provided, and other prosecutions have recovered millions or led to convictions in narrower cases, including schemes tied to residential services, autism providers and Feeding Our Future food‑aid fraud—actions that feed the larger aggregate estimates [6] [7] [4]. In December 2025 and January 2026, new charges and audits were unrolled as part of an “industrial‑scale” Medicaid fraud probe that federal prosecutors warned could reach into the billions [1] [6].
3. How the figures are constructed and where uncertainty remains
Investigators derive large estimates by comparing total billings to program rules and documented provider activity, flagging programs with atypical growth or billing patterns; CMS and state auditors have paused enrollments and deferred payments for 14 programs while a third‑party audit proceeds, but those pauses reflect suspicion not settled liability, and officials caution that the exact amount of proven theft will change as cases progress and some allegations are disproven or reduced [8] [3] [4]. Media accounts and oversight hearings sometimes conflate amounts billed, amounts under investigation, and amounts prosecutors allege were stolen, producing divergent public figures and political rhetoric [5] [2].
4. Political, social and community dimensions of the reporting
The scandal has been politicized: House committee leaders have used the high dollar estimates to demand accountability from state officials, while Minnesota’s governor and other state leaders have pushed back against what they call politicization of the issue; reporting also highlights the outsized focus on Somali‑American providers in many prosecutions, a fact that has fueled community concern and accusations of bias even as authorities say investigations target conduct rather than ethnicity [2] [4] [5]. A viral social media video added public pressure and prompted federal visits to daycare centers, but major outlets reporting those visits noted investigators had previously found no evidence of fraud at several cited daycares, underscoring how online narratives can outpace evidentiary findings [4] [9].
5. What is still unresolved and what to watch next
Audits of the 14 high‑risk programs, deferred federal payments, ongoing federal indictments and criminal prosecutions mean the full scope and verified dollar loss remain fluid; the third‑party audit by CMS and state pauses on payments will provide more definitive accounting, and court cases will test the prosecutorial estimates—until those processes conclude, public figures like “$9 billion” should be read as investigative estimates subject to refinement [8] [1] [3].
6. Bottom line
Substantial fraud has been alleged and charged in Minnesota across multiple social‑service programs, and federal prosecutors say the amount “likely” reaches into the billions, but those headline numbers are preliminary aggregations drawn from audits and billed totals under investigation rather than finalized, adjudicated sums; the coming audits and court outcomes will determine how much money was definitively stolen and who will be held accountable [1] [3] [8].