How many Californians were enrolled in Medi-Cal in 2024 and 2025?
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Executive summary
Official and research sources place Medi‑Cal enrollment at about 15 million Californians in 2024 and at roughly the same level — slightly above 15 million — in 2025, with estimates describing enrollment as "nearly 15 million" in July 2024 and "about 15 million" average monthly caseload in 2024–25 (UC Berkeley Labor Center; LAO) [1] [2].
1. A single headline figure, but multiple ways to count
California’s Medi‑Cal caseload is commonly reported in round millions: UC Berkeley’s Labor Center says “nearly 15 million” people were enrolled as of July 2024 [1]. The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) treats average monthly caseload in 2024‑25 as about 15 million and notes caseload is expected to be “nearly equal to the level in 2024‑25 (15 million people)” and rise slightly [2]. These are the primary, contemporaneous tallies used by analysts and the state to describe program size [1] [2].
2. Why different sources sound slightly different
Analysts use different reference points: point‑in‑time counts (for example July 2024) versus average monthly caseloads across a fiscal year. UC Berkeley’s July 2024 point estimate is “nearly 15 million” [1]. The LAO frames enrollment as an average monthly figure for 2024‑25 and says it is “nearly equal” to 15 million and projects a 2 percent increase into 2025‑26 in some scenarios [2]. Small discrepancies arise from methodology (point vs. average), timing, and later updates to enrollment during renewals and policy changes [2].
3. How big is that relative to the state population?
Reports say Medi‑Cal covers roughly a third to nearly 40 percent of Californians. UC Berkeley and other analysts note the program reached almost 15 million enrollees by mid‑2024 [1], and other research frames 2024 enrollment at about 38 percent of the state population [3]. Those percentages are useful for policy debates over budget and labor impacts because the program is one of the largest single purchasers of care in the state [3] [2].
4. What changed in 2024–25 that affected enrollment numbers
Policy shifts have driven enrollment growth. California eliminated the asset test for seniors and people with disabilities effective January 1, 2024, a change the LAO links to an increase in the senior caseload and quantifies as hundreds of thousands of additional enrollees by late 2024 (LAO estimates roughly 112,000–135,000 attributable to the asset test elimination as of early‑to‑late 2024) [4] [2]. These policy moves — plus relaxations from the pandemic era — underlie both the scale and the persistence of the caseload level reported in 2024 and 2025 [2] [4].
5. Budget context: enrollment drives a large program budget
The LAO highlights that Medi‑Cal’s budget grows from both caseload and per‑enrollee costs, and its May Revision shows caseload roughly at 15 million in 2024‑25 with spending upwardly revised — the enacted 2025‑26 budget included much larger totals for DHCS (the LAO cites caseload and per‑enrollee spending as drivers of higher spending) [2] [5]. UC Berkeley also ties enrollment counts to spending estimates — for example, the Labor Center links its enrollment maps to a $184 billion Medi‑Cal spending estimate for 2024‑25 [1].
6. Who’s in that 15 million? Age and subgroup notes
Children, working‑age adults, seniors, and people with disabilities make up the caseload. UC Berkeley reports more than 5 million children and teens were enrolled as of July 2024 [6]. The Labor Center and other groups (CBPP cited by Labor Center) break out that in 2024 about 8.2 million were working‑age non‑disabled adults, and analysts emphasize the large share of working‑age adults among enrollees [3] [6].
7. Limits of current public reporting and why exact day‑to‑day counts vary
Available sources give clear mid‑2024 snapshots and fiscal‑year averages for 2024–25, but they do not publish a single, definitive statewide daily headcount for all of 2025 in the materials you provided. UC Berkeley’s July 2024 point estimate and the LAO’s 2024–25 average caseload are the best documented numbers here [1] [2]. If you need a precise monthly time series for 2024–2025, the Department of Health Care Services’ eligibility statistics page likely holds more granular administrative data — the DHCS page is referenced but the provided snippet does not show a specific monthly total in these search results [7] [5].
8. Bottom line for readers and policymakers
Multiple authoritative analyses converge: Medi‑Cal enrolled about 15 million Californians in mid‑2024 and the program remained at roughly that scale into 2025, driven by policy expansions (asset test elimination and eligibility expansions) and sustained by pandemic‑era flexibilities — all of which shape California’s budget and health policy debates [1] [2] [4]. For a precise monthly count or the latest post‑2025 update, consult DHCS monthly eligibility statistics directly; the documents cited above are the basis for the “nearly 15 million / about 15 million” headline used by researchers and the state [1] [2].