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Which cancer types have shown the largest year-over-year incidence increases globally since 2020?
Executive summary
Reported global cancer incidence since 2020 is best described by large, modelled shifts driven mainly by demographics and uneven data updates rather than a uniform, year-over-year jump concentrated in a few tumour types. Available global datasets (GLOBOCAN/IARC and derivative analyses) show projections and multi-year percent increases for broad categories — notably breast and prostate cancers — but do not provide a simple, definitive ranking of which cancer types have had the largest single year-over-year increases globally since 2020 in the form your question asks (available sources do not mention a ranked, global year-over-year list) [1] [2] [3].
1. Projections, not direct year-to-year counts: why the headline increases mostly reflect modelling
Global statements about rising cancer incidence since 2020 in IARC/GLOBOCAN materials are predominantly projections that combine registry data, recent national statistics, and demographic forecasts rather than direct year-to-year enumerations; GLOBOCAN 2020 provides baseline incidence and uses modelling to forecast future rises, including large projected absolute growth through 2040 driven by population ageing and growth [1] [2]. Analysts and commissions — for example on breast and prostate cancer — publish forecasts showing steep multi‑decade increases (breast cancer projected to exceed 3 million new cases by 2040; prostate cases forecast to rise from ~1.4 million in 2020 to ~2.9 million by 2040), but these are long‑term projections and not single-year measured “since 2020” increases [4].
2. Breast and prostate cancers are repeatedly highlighted as fast‑growing burdens, but context matters
Multiple pieces of reporting and specialist commissions single out breast cancer and prostate cancer as cancers whose global incidence is expected to climb markedly, with the Lancet and related reviews forecasting large absolute increases through 2040 and calling out that the greatest rises will occur in low‑ and middle‑income countries as lifestyles and demographics change [4] [2]. GLOBOCAN’s 2020 dataset already showed breast and lung among the highest-incidence cancers worldwide, and commentaries tie rising breast cancer burden to reproductive and obesity-related risk shifts — factors that drive medium‑ and long‑term trends rather than abrupt year-over-year jumps [2] [1].
3. Data limitations: incomplete registry coverage and pandemic artefacts obscure short‑term comparisons
IARC and journal analyses warn that coverage, reporting delays, and the COVID‑19 pandemic complicate direct comparisons of incidence before and after 2020: screening pauses and diagnostic delays in 2020–2021 likely caused short‑term declines in recorded incidence with later rebounds and stage‑shift effects, meaning apparent increases in subsequent years may partly reflect catch‑up detection rather than true sudden rises in underlying risk [1]. The Global Cancer Observatory stresses that GLOBOCAN updates pool sources with different time windows and modelling choices, so straightforward year‑over‑year global rankings are not supplied [5] [6].
4. Regional reports show bigger short‑term swings than global totals — watch the middle and low‑HDI countries
Where short‑term increases have been quantified, they often appear at regional or national level. For example, recent GLOBOCAN‑derived analyses and regional studies point to faster proportional increases in lower‑HDI regions and specific areas such as North Africa, while high‑HDI regions show smaller proportional changes or even declines for some cancers due to prevention and screening (one AJBM analysis reported a 23.6% rise in North Africa across 2020–2024, though regional methodology and validation are important caveats) [7] [8]. This means that a “largest global increase” headline can mask very different local realities [8] [3].
5. Which cancers are most likely to show the largest increases if you extrapolate current trends?
Based on the combination of GLOBOCAN baselines, commission projections and public health analyses, breast cancer and prostate cancer emerge as the cancers most consistently forecast to register the largest absolute increases through coming decades, driven by aging populations and lifestyle transitions in low‑ and middle‑income countries [4] [2]. Other site‑specific literature — for example on gastric cancer — shows mixed trends with declines in many countries but increases in younger cohorts in some settings, underscoring that trends are cancer‑ and region‑specific rather than universally synchronous [9].
6. What a careful answer to your original question would require
To answer “which cancer types have shown the largest year‑over‑year incidence increases globally since 2020” with authority, researchers would need harmonized, year‑by‑year incidence counts from cancer registries covering a high proportion of the world population, standardized staging/screening adjustments, and explicit handling of COVID‑related diagnostic disruptions — none of which are supplied as a single global dataset in the cited materials (available sources do not mention a validated, global year‑over‑year ranking table) [1] [5] [2]. Until such harmonized annual data are published and peer reviewed, the most defensible claims are about projected multi‑year rises (not single-year global ranks) and about regional variation in which cancers are increasing fastest [3] [4].
Overall, the best current reading of the evidence is that breast and prostate cancers are forecast to contribute the largest absolute increases in global caseloads over coming decades, but available sources do not provide a validated, global year‑over‑year leaderboard of incidence increases specifically for the post‑2020 period; regional and methodological caveats substantially affect short‑term comparisons [1] [2] [4].