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What are the most common types of cancer with increasing incidence rates since 2020?
Executive summary
Available U.S. and global reports agree that overall cancer incidence has been roughly stable or only modestly changing since 2020, but several specific cancers show clear upward trends—most notably cancers linked to obesity, early-onset colorectal and other early‑onset tumors, and some virus‑associated and metabolic cancers. Key sources highlight rising incidence for uterine (endometrial), pancreatic, liver, kidney, thyroid (longstanding but possibly stabilizing), HPV‑associated oral cancers, and increasing early‑onset colorectal and rectal neuroendocrine tumors; these patterns are attributed to changes in risk factors, diagnostic practices, and pandemic‑era disruptions to screening [1] [2] [3] [4] [5].
1. “Obesity‑related cancers are climbing” — the weight of evidence
The Annual Report to the Nation and related U.S. surveillance material identify a consistent signal: incidence is rising for cancers linked to excess body weight, including female breast (ER‑positive), uterus (endometrial), colorectal among younger adults, pancreas, kidney, and liver (in women), and they explicitly tie those changes to falling fertility, later childbearing, rising obesity, and increased alcohol use [1]. The AACR’s 2025 Cancer Progress Report echoes this pattern, singling out pancreatic, liver, and uterine cancers as examples of types whose incidence has been increasing in recent years [3]. These sources frame the trend as driven primarily by population‑level lifestyle and reproductive shifts rather than a single novel exposure [1] [3].
2. Early‑onset cancers: colorectal and more—why younger adults matter
The National Cancer Institute and multiple surveillance analyses report a worrying increase in early‑onset cancers, notably colorectal cancer in people under 50, and note that more than ten other common cancers—including breast, uterine, and kidney—are being diagnosed more frequently in younger adults [4]. SEER and other data show colorectal incidence shifting younger even as older‑adult rates decline, a pattern that surveillance reports link to cohort effects and changing exposures across generations [6] [1]. Emerging research also flags a sharp rise in rectal neuroendocrine tumors among adults under 55, suggesting that not only the classic adenocarcinomas but other histologies are contributing to the early‑onset signal [5].
3. Thyroid cancer: big historical rise, possible recent stabilization
Thyroid cancer experienced a steep, long‑term increase—about 4% per year since at least 1998—but the American Cancer Society’s comprehensive review and related articles indicate that this intense rise may be stabilizing in recent years [2]. Surveillance pieces caution that some of the historical increase was driven by greater detection of small, indolent tumors; thus changes in diagnostic practices can materially affect observed incidence [2]. Available sources do not claim a renewed steep increase since 2020, but they note the disease remains highly prevalent among certain survivor groups [7] [2].
4. Virus‑associated and head/neck cancers: HPV’s shifting footprint
Several expert summaries and the AACR report identify HPV‑associated oral cancers—such as cancers at the base of tongue and tonsils—as rising in incidence [3]. The Annual Report and related surveillance documents highlight both declines in some infection‑related cancers (for example cervical cancer in vaccinated cohorts) and increases in other HPV‑related sites, reflecting shifts in sexual behavior, vaccination coverage, and screening uptake [1] [3]. The net picture in the sources is heterogeneous: vaccination reduces some burdens while other HPV‑associated cancers rise in particular demographics [1] [3].
5. Pandemic effects, reporting artifacts, and interpretation caveats
Surveillance authors and the CDC explicitly warn that 2020 data were disrupted by COVID‑19–related declines in screening and diagnosis, so that year is often shown separately or excluded from trend fits; 2021 frequently represents a rebound to expected levels [2] [8]. The American Cancer Society and federal reports stress that short‑term fluctuations can reflect missed diagnoses and reporting delays rather than true etiologic shifts, and that incidence estimates and state projections are model‑based and should be interpreted with caution [2] [8]. Where possible, analysts adjust for reporting delays, but available sources emphasize cautious interpretation of trends that hinge on the 2020–2021 period [2] [8].
6. Global context and regional variation: rising in some places, falling in others
Global reviews show that while high‑income countries often see stabilization or declines in some cancers, many cancers are rising worldwide—especially in lower‑ and middle‑income countries undergoing lifestyle transitions [9] [10]. The Global Cancer Observatory and GLOBOCAN analyses connect rising colorectal and other “Western‑pattern” cancers to dietary change, sedentary behavior, and increased life expectancy, underlining that incidence trends are uneven across regions and driven by socioeconomic shifts [9] [10].
Conclusion: a targeted list grounded in surveillance
Drawing on the cited U.S. and international surveillance and review articles, the cancers most consistently reported as increasing since around 2020 are uterine/endometrial, pancreatic, liver, kidney, early‑onset colorectal (and rectal neuroendocrine tumors), and certain HPV‑associated oral cancers; thyroid rose historically and may be stabilizing [1] [3] [4] [5] [2]. Limitations: reported trends vary by age, sex, and region, 2020 pandemic effects complicate interpretation, and some increases may reflect detection or classification changes rather than pure changes in risk [2] [8] [1].