What are provisional US suicide rates for 2025 from the CDC?

1. What the CDC actually publishes now — provisional vs. final

The CDC distinguishes final mortality counts (which undergo full review) from provisional mortality data compiled faster from death certificates; the provisional suicide numbers for 2024–2025 are available via CDC WONDER and on CDC pages but are explicitly described as “received, but not yet fully reviewed,” meaning they can change when final files are released ^{[2] [5]}. NCHS releases formal data briefs and rapid-release reports (for example, final reports through 2022 and data briefs on 2023) that reconcile provisional counts with finalized mortality files ^{[4] [6]}.

2. The headline numbers reporters are using

Several public summaries cite an overall, age-adjusted U.S. suicide rate around 14.1 deaths per 100,000 for 2022–2023 (the AFSP page cites 14.21 in 2022 and 14.12 in 2023 based on CDC data), and the CDC’s suicide fact pages and state-rate visualizations point users to provisional monthly and state-level rates on CDC WONDER for the most current snapshots ^{[1] [3] [2]}. NIMH and other federal pages link CDC WISQARS and WONDER tools for users seeking 2023 and provisional 2024 counts ^[7].

3. Trends and what changed recently — context from NCHS

NCHS analysis shows suicide rates rose through 2018, declined through 2020, then increased again through 2022; by 2023 the overall national rate was essentially similar to 2022, with most states showing no statistically significant change from 2022 to 2023 ^{[4] [8] [6]}. NCHS Data Brief No. 541 and related work detail small but significant changes in particular age groups and five states where rates changed significantly between 2022 and 2023 ^[6].

4. Who is most affected — disparities the CDC highlights

CDC materials emphasize that suicide rates vary sharply by age, sex, method and state: males account for the majority of suicide deaths (about four times the female rate), older adults (notably men 75+) show some of the highest rates, firearms are the most common method, and racial/ethnic reporting on death certificates can undercount some groups — caveats CDC repeatedly flags ^{[2] [7] [4]}.

5. Limits of the provisional 2025 picture and common misreadings

Available sources do not publish a single definitive “2025 national suicide rate” because CDC’s most recent national-rate publications are provisional for 2024 and finalized for 2023; the agency’s dashboards and WONDER extracts are the mechanism for provisional 2024–2025 monitoring, and those datasets are explicitly provisional and subject to later revision ^{[2] [5]}. Claims of sharp year-to-year jumps in 2024–2025 must cite CDC WONDER extracts or forthcoming NCHS briefs; otherwise such claims are not documented in the sources provided ^{[2] [5]}.

6. How journalists and policymakers should use these numbers

Use CDC provisional data to identify signals — month-to-month or state-to-state anomalies — but rely on NCHS data briefs and final NVSS mortality files for confirmed trend statements; NCHS data briefs published in 2025 summarize final 2023 results and note where changes were statistically significant, demonstrating the difference between provisional surveillance and finalized analysis ^{[6] [4]}.

7. Where to look next and what to expect

For the most up-to-date provisional counts for 2024–2025 consult CDC WONDER and the CDC Suicide Data pages; for vetted national trend analysis watch for new NCHS data briefs and Vital Statistics Rapid Release reports that convert provisional monitoring into final, peer-reviewed numbers ^{[2] [5] [4]}. Any reporting on 2025 national rates should explicitly label figures as provisional and cite the CDC WONDER access date, because the agency does so on its pages ^[2].

Limitations: this summary relies exclusively on CDC and related federal pages provided; available sources do not include a single finalized “2025 suicide rate” and therefore definitive national 2025 figures are not in current reporting ^{[2] [5]}.