What are provisional US suicide rates by sex and race for 2025 from the CDC?
Executive summary
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) publishes provisional suicide data and breakdowns by sex and race/ethnicity through its National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), and provisional files accessed in March 2025 reflect death certificates received as of March 10, 2025 [1]. The sources supplied for this briefing do not include a single CDC table or report that lists finalized numeric provisional suicide rates by sex and race for the calendar year 2025, so precise 2025 rate values cannot be reported from the material provided here [1] [2].
1. How the CDC reports provisional suicide data and why 2025 numbers can be elusive
The CDC marks some mortality outputs as provisional because death certificates are received and processed with delays; provisional suicide estimates presented on CDC webpages are based on death certificate data received but not yet fully reviewed, and the agency documents reporting lags and methods on its WONDER platform and Vital Statistics Rapid Release products [1] [2]. The Rapid Release series and NCHS data briefs have historically published provisional counts and age‑adjusted rates for recent years (for example, provisional 2022 and 2023 summaries), but the supplied materials stop short of a published numeric table labeled “provisional 2025 suicide rates by sex and race,” so the exact 2025 values requested are not available in the provided files [3] [4] [2].
2. What the CDC sources do reveal about patterns by sex and race up to early 2025
CDC pages and data briefs consistently show that suicide rates vary strongly by sex—men have substantially higher death rates than women—and that certain racial and ethnic groups experience higher age‑adjusted suicide rates, particularly non‑Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) populations followed by non‑Hispanic White populations, according to CDC fact sheets and data visualizations current as of 2025 [5] [6] [3]. The NCHS graphics and tables cited in the Rapid Release products display sex‑stratified age‑adjusted rates for prior provisional years (e.g., final 2021 and provisional 2022 figures), demonstrating how the agency presents sex and race breakdowns when provisional data are released [3].
3. Recent trend signals relevant to interpreting any 2025 provisional estimates
Analyses and CDC notes through 2023–2024 indicated shifts across demographic groups—provisional and final data published in 2023–2024 showed both increases and decreases among subgroups—and CDC and NCHS reporting warn that trends can differ by age, race/ethnicity, and sex [7] [4] [8]. For example, a CDC MMWR note covering 2018–2023 highlighted that rates increased among non‑Hispanic Black and Hispanic persons while decreasing among non‑Hispanic White persons and some younger age groups, underscoring that a single national aggregate masks divergent subgroup trends [8].
4. Caveats about race/ethnicity classification and provisional data reliability
The CDC explicitly cautions that race and Hispanic origin on death certificates can be inconsistently reported compared with Census survey data, which can lead to underestimates for some racial groups; that caveat applies to provisional data based on death certificates as well, and users are directed to CDC documentation for interpretation guidance [1]. Additionally, methodological notes in the Vital Statistics Rapid Release products describe nowcasting and adjustment approaches intended to account for reporting lags, further emphasizing that provisional figures are subject to revision as records are completed [2].
5. Bottom line and where to get the exact 2025 provisional rates
From the materials provided, authoritative CDC provisional estimates exist and are accessible through CDC suicide data pages and the WONDER system (with data extracted as of March 10–11, 2025), but the supplied sources do not include a ready numeric table explicitly labeled “2025 provisional suicide rates by sex and race” that can be republished here; therefore, exact numeric 2025 rates by sex and race cannot be stated from these sources alone [1] [2]. For precise 2025 provisional numbers, consult the CDC Suicide Data and Statistics page and the NCHS WONDER provisional mortality tables (CDC links cited on the suicide data page and in Rapid Release guidance) where NCHS posts the most current provisional age‑adjusted rates and sex/race breakdowns [1] [2].