What are the chances of contracting cancer?
Executive summary
About 2.04 million new cancer cases and roughly 618,120 cancer deaths are projected in the United States in 2025, meaning on average about 5,600 new diagnoses and 1,700 deaths per day [1] [2]. Lifetime and age‑specific chances of getting cancer vary widely by sex, age, cancer type and population group; the American Cancer Society used NCI DevCan models and registry data through 2021–2022 to estimate these probabilities [3] [4].
1. What the headline numbers mean: scale, not an individual prediction
The figures—2,041,910 new cases and 618,120 deaths for 2025—are national projections produced by the American Cancer Society using cancer registries and mortality data; they describe population burden, not any single person’s risk [1] [3]. Reporting outlets translate this to daily averages (about 5,600 new cases per day) to convey scale; those averages mix every cancer type, age group and risk profile together [2] [5].
2. Individual chance differs by age, sex and cancer type
ACS and NCI tools (DevCan) generate probabilities of developing cancer across a lifetime and by age brackets; the report stresses sex differences and shifting age patterns—incidence rates rose in some cancers among younger adults and women, while mortality has declined overall [3] [6]. For example, breast cancer will account for a large share of female cases in 2025 and prostate remains large among men—showing the importance of cancer‑specific context [2] [7].
3. Trends: mortality down, incidence shifting — why that complicates “chance”
Death rates have fallen substantially over decades—age‑adjusted cancer mortality declined about 34% from 1991–2022, averting millions of deaths—which lowers the risk of dying from cancer even as diagnoses change [8] [6]. At the same time some incidence rates are rising in select populations (notably certain cancers in younger adults and women), so a person’s chance of ever being diagnosed depends on both these long‑term trends and their own demographics [6] [9].
4. Drivers and disparities that change risk for subgroups
ACS and other analyses point to multiple drivers: tobacco declines have cut lung cancer deaths, but obesity, reproductive patterns, alcohol, and other exposures may increase risks in specific cancers and groups; racial/ethnic disparities persist, with some populations facing much higher mortality for certain cancers [10] [11] [8]. State and local data—compiled in ACS supplemental tables and CDC tools—show geography and sociodemographic factors materially affect incidence and mortality [12] [13].
5. What the modeling excludes and limitations to the estimates
ACS projections rely on registry data through 2021 (incidence) and mortality through 2022 and use two‑step statistical modeling; the report explicitly excluded pandemic‑disrupted 2020 incidence from some trend and lifetime risk calculations because modeling programs can’t accommodate that anomaly [3] [4]. The most recent complete data lags 2–3 years, so projections aim to estimate contemporary burden but are subject to modeling assumptions and data delays [4].
6. Practical takeaway: personalize risk and prevention
Population numbers show cancer remains common, but personal chance depends on age, sex, family history, exposures, and screening. The ACS report and related coverage recommend tailored prevention (smoking cessation, vaccination, healthy weight, screening where indicated) and consultation with clinicians about individual risk and screening—actions the report and commentators say can materially reduce risk and mortality [10] [6].
7. Competing perspectives and where reporting diverges
ACS emphasizes both progress (falling mortality) and worrying shifts (rising incidence in younger adults and women) and uses registry‑based modeling to reconcile those trends [6] [3]. Other organizations highlighted in the materials—AACR and CDC—frame the same data as a call to sustain research and address disparities, noting future case counts will rise as the population ages unless prevention accelerates [8] [13]. These are complementary perspectives: one stresses current burden and trends, the others stress implications for research, equity and future planning.
Limitations: available sources here report U.S. national and subgroup statistics and modeling methods but do not provide a single, general “percent chance” applicable to every individual—personal risk estimates require tools or clinical assessment not included in the supplied materials [3] [4].