COVID-19 death rates and response under Trump and Biden
Executive summary
Counting raw COVID-19 deaths shows more U.S. deaths occurred after Jan. 20, 2021, than before — multiple fact-checkers and analysts report that cumulative deaths under Biden’s presidency eventually surpassed deaths under Trump, with CDC-based tallies noting 424,307 deaths through Jan. 20, 2021 and more than 580,000 since then as one FactCheck report cited [1]. Experts and reviewers caution that simple comparisons by presidential term are misleading because Biden’s time in office covers more of the pandemic’s later waves and improvements in treatment, vaccination rollout, and community behavior strongly affect outcomes [2] [3].
1. Death counts: what the raw numbers say
Public tallies reported that through Jan. 20, 2021 there were about 424,307 U.S. COVID deaths and that later counts added more than 580,000 deaths during Biden’s presidency — leading FactCheck to state “more COVID-19 deaths have occurred under Biden than under Trump” using those CDC figures [1]. News outlets tracked the crossover point in early 2022 when cumulative deaths during Biden’s term approached and then exceeded those recorded during Trump’s term [4] [5].
2. Why many experts call that comparison an apples-to-oranges measure
HealthFeedback and Science Feedback both emphasize that comparing death totals by presidency ignores differences in timing and exposure: Biden has presided over a larger share of the pandemic period (including long stretches after vaccines arrived and new variants emerged), so absolute totals alone don’t measure policy effectiveness [2] [3]. Those sites label simple “more deaths under Biden” claims as misleading because they omit the unequal span each president governed during the pandemic [2] [3].
3. What public-health analysts point to instead: rates, timing and context
Analysts and briefs recommend examining age-adjusted death rates, deaths per 100,000, vaccination rates, and the timing of waves rather than raw totals. KFF’s comparative brief lays out how federal actions, timing of interventions, and existing public-health capacity shaped outcomes and must be weighed when comparing administrations [6]. Scientific American highlights that improvements—widespread vaccines, antivirals like Paxlovid and better clinical care—reduced average daily deaths in later waves even as cases rose [7].
4. Geographic and political patterns within the country
County-level analyses show striking divergences: NPR and other outlets found that since widespread vaccine availability (around May 2021), counties that voted heavily for Trump experienced substantially higher COVID death rates than Biden counties — roughly 2.7–3 times higher in several analyses — and this gap persisted even after controlling for age [8] [9]. NBC and Rolling Stone summarized similar regional disparities showing higher mortality in many pro-Trump counties in the post-vaccine era [10] [9].
5. Causes and competing explanations for county-level gaps
NPR and follow-up reporting attribute much of the county-level divergence to lower vaccination rates and the spread of misinformation in some pro-Trump areas; those reports say differences in vaccine uptake and behavior explain much of the higher death rates rather than federal policy alone [8] [9]. KFF and Scientific American emphasize that availability of treatments, timing of variant waves, and public-health capacity also shape mortality independently of who occupies the White House [6] [7].
6. Political uses of the numbers: narrative, nuance, and misinformation risks
Fact-checking organizations and Health Feedback note the political weaponization of simple tallies: the “more deaths under Biden” phrasing has circulated as a partisan talking point despite the complexity of timelines and drivers [3] [1]. Media outlets documented how different actors (campaigns, commentators) invoked raw counts to support claims while critics warned that the comparison omits key context [11] [12].
7. What a careful reader should take away
Raw counts are factual but incomplete: yes, cumulative deaths after Jan. 20, 2021 eventually exceeded those before that date according to CDC-based tallies cited by FactCheck and others [1] [5], yet multiple analysts and review organizations caution that those totals do not by themselves prove superior or inferior presidential performance because of differing time spans, variant dynamics, vaccination rollout, treatments and county-level behavioral differences [2] [3] [6]. For policy assessment, compare rates, timing, vaccination and treatment coverage, and local outcomes rather than relying on headline death totals alone [6] [8].
Limitations: available sources do not mention an exhaustive, single peer‑reviewed study that quantifies exactly how much each factor (policy, vaccine uptake, misinformation, variants) contributed to the deaths assigned to each presidential period; readers should treat causal attributions accordingly (not found in current reporting).