Fact check: What are the current cancer rates compared to pre-2020 levels?

1. What the different reports actually claim — a compact inventory that matters to readers

Analyses present three core claims: globally, GLOBOCAN 2022 estimates ~20 million new cancers and 9.7 million deaths, but it does not compute direct pre‑2020 comparisons; U.S. national surveillance finds incidence dipped in 2020 then returned to pre‑pandemic trends by 2021, with small female annual increases over 2003–2021 when excluding 2020; and the overall U.S. cancer mortality rate continued declining through 2022, averting roughly 4.5 million deaths since 1991. These claims are reported across GLOBOCAN and Cancer Statistics 2025 products and framed differently by each dataset ^{[1] [2] [3] [4]}.

2. Global snapshot: more cancers now, but missing direct pre‑2020 comparisons

GLOBOCAN’s 2022 compilation provides a quantitative baseline — 20 million incident cancers and 9.7 million deaths — and highlights geographic variation and leading sites such as lung cancer, yet it does not directly compare rates to the immediate pre‑2020 period. The analysis emphasizes prevention and control to address projected growth to 35 million cases by 2050 but leaves a gap for readers seeking a simple “2022 vs 2019” change. This means the global picture shows scale and direction but not the short‑term pandemic‑era perturbation many stakeholders want to quantify ^{[1] [5]}.

3. U.S. trends: a pandemic dip then a return — what surveillance finds

U.S. national data in the 2025 reports indicate cancer incidence fell in 2020 but largely rebounded to pre‑pandemic levels in 2021, with long‑term trajectories showing stability among males and a modest female annual increase when 2020 is excluded. Mortality continued to decline through 2022, reflecting ongoing improvements in early detection and treatment. These findings portray COVID‑19 as a temporary disruptor of diagnosis and reporting rather than a durable change in cancer incidence or mortality trends in the U.S., according to the analyses ^{[2] [3] [4]}.

4. Declining mortality is real — but the gains are uneven and fragile

The Cancer Statistics 2025 analyses document a continued decline in cancer mortality through 2022, estimating nearly 4.5 million deaths averted since 1991, signaling sustained public health progress. However, the same sources warn that racial and tribal disparities remain stark, with Native American populations and some Black communities experiencing higher mortality for particular cancers. These inequities and the rising burden among younger and middle‑aged adults, notably women, are highlighted as threats to continued mortality improvements unless prevention and treatment access are prioritized ^{[4] [3] [6]}.

5. Projections and the long view: why 2050 matters to policy and planning

GLOBOCAN and subsequent commentaries flag a projected global rise to roughly 35 million cancer cases by 2050, driven by demographic change and risk factor prevalence, underscoring that short‑term pandemic effects do not negate long‑term growth. The emphasis shifts from year‑to‑year comparisons toward investments in prevention, early detection, and equitable treatment to counteract the forecasted increase. This long‑range framing is used to justify policy attention even as near‑term data show recovery from 2020 disruptions ^{[5] [6]}.

6. What the data don’t resolve — measurement, reporting lag, and context you should know

The principal limitations across the sources are incomplete direct pre‑2020 comparisons at the global level, reporting delays from pandemic disruption, and heterogeneity across regions and subpopulations. GLOBOCAN provides cross‑sectional snapshots; U.S. surveillance documents temporal perturbations but relies on registry completeness that dipped in 2020. That combination means headline counts can mask diagnosis delays, backlog effects, and under‑ascertainment in some groups — factors that complicate simple “higher or lower than pre‑2020” claims ^{[1] [2] [4]}.

7. Bottom line for readers asking “how do current rates compare to pre‑2020?”

At a global level, 2022 counts show a high and growing cancer burden but lack a direct single‑number comparison to 2019; in the U.S., incidence dipped in 2020 then rebounded by 2021 and mortality continued to decline through 2022, so current trends largely reflect recovery rather than a permanent pandemic‑driven shift. Persistent health inequities and a projected long‑term rise in cases remain central concerns that shape how these comparisons should guide policy and clinical priorities ^{[1] [2] [4] [3]}.