Did health insurance companies raise premiums when Biden extended Obama care to more people

1. Why premiums appear to be jumping — policy cliff or insurer reaction?

Health plans filed two sets of 2026 rates with many state regulators: one assuming the enhanced premium tax credits continue and one assuming they expire. The sharp average increases shown in filings — roughly a 26% jump for benchmark plans nationally and 30% on the federal exchange — are driven primarily by insurers pricing for the likely expiration of those subsidies, not solely by enrollment growth ^{[2] [4]}. KFF’s analysis calculated those average increases and tied much of the sticker shock to the end of the enhanced credits, which would more than double monthly payments for many current enrollees if not extended ^[2].

2. What the Biden expansions actually did before the subsidy uncertainty emerged

The Biden administration’s earlier actions, including provisions in the American Rescue Plan and later measures, expanded eligibility for financial assistance and lowered net premiums for many people, producing record marketplace enrollment and a lower uninsured rate. Analyses from 2021 and administration summaries documented average premium reductions and larger shares of enrollees finding low-cost plans after subsidies were increased ^{[1] [5]}. Those effects are separate from the 2026 filing pattern: the expansions reduced out-of-pocket premium burdens while the pending end of enhanced credits is producing the current projected increases ^[1].

3. How big the projected damage could be if subsidies lapse

Multiple outlets and analyses warn that if enhanced premium tax credits expire at the end of 2025, millions could face premiums that more than double, with KFF and reporting estimating a 26% average premium rise and projections that roughly 22 million people relying on credits would see large cost increases and some could drop coverage ^{[2] [4]}. Reports show state variation: in some states benchmark premiums could more than double, potentially driving higher uninsured rates over the coming years if Congress does not act ^[2].

4. Insurers, hospitals and broader cost trends also shape rates

Beyond subsidy math, insurers point to rising medical spending, higher hospital and provider prices, and more use of expensive treatments as input costs that feed into premium proposals. News reporting on 2025–2026 filings highlights insurer estimates that costs and utilization trends contributed to the surge in proposed premiums, and regulators reviewed filings that included both subsidy and non-subsidy scenarios to account for those dynamics ^{[4] [3]}. Thus, premium increases in filings reflect a compound of policy uncertainty and underlying healthcare cost pressures, not a single administrative action.

5. What consumers actually face and the political landscape shaping outcomes

The immediate consumer impact depends on whether Congress or the administration acts to extend subsidies; if Congress extends enhanced tax credits, many proposed increases will be pared back and most enrollees can still find low-cost plans after credits, but if credits lapse millions will see sharply higher premiums and some may forgo coverage. Political fights over the credits and related budget decisions are central to the outcome, with Democrats urging extensions and uncertainty from negotiations feeding insurer two-track filings ^{[2] [4] [3]}. The interplay of legislative choices, regulator approvals, and insurer adjustments will determine whether the premium spike in 2026 materializes for most consumers.