How many transgender adults were estimated in the United States in 2016 and 2020?

1. Bold Claims on 2016 — Two Competing Estimates That Matter

Two principal, directly stated claims appear in the material about the 2016 adult transgender population. One analysis reports an estimate of approximately 1.4 million adults identifying as transgender in 2016, representing roughly 0.6% of the adult population; that figure is derived from state-level Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data using multilevel regression and post-stratification and emphasizes geographic variation and younger-age concentration ^[1]. A competing peer-reviewed synthesis puts the 2016 number at about 1.0 million adults, or 0.39%, based on a meta-regression of multiple surveys spanning 2007–2015 and highlighting methodological differences across studies ^[2]. Both claims are explicit, but they rest on different data sets and estimation techniques, producing materially different point estimates that matter for policy, services, and demographic analysis ^{[1] [2]}.

2. Why One Study Produces the Higher 1.4 Million Figure

The higher 1.4 million estimate is grounded in a modeling approach applied to a large, state-representative health-survey system and intentionally adjusts for known sampling limitations with multilevel regression and post-stratification; that technique tends to raise estimates relative to unadjusted survey counts by correcting for demographic and geographic patterns of nonresponse and small-sample variability, and it highlights that younger adults and some states show higher prevalence ^[1]. The authors of that estimate note peer evaluation of the approach but also acknowledge the method is open to criticism, which typically centers on model assumptions and choice of priors; those modelling choices can substantially affect national totals while attempting to compensate for undercounting in standard survey measures ^[1]. This method produces the larger national point estimate, and it emphasizes state-by-state differences that matter for localized planning ^[1].

3. Why the Meta-Regression Yields the Lower ~1.0 Million Number

The lower estimate comes from a meta-analysis that pooled multiple surveys and applied meta-regression to derive an aggregate prevalence for 2016. That approach tends to be more conservative when earlier surveys with narrower measures or smaller samples are included, and the authors note an increasing trend over time — meaning earlier surveys pull the pooled estimate down relative to models that weight more recent data or correct for survey undercounting ^[2]. The meta-analysis also observes that a disproportionate share of respondents were younger adults, potentially skewing age-structured prevalence; its strength is transparency in combining multiple data sources, but its weakness is sensitivity to heterogeneity across instruments and question wording, which can yield a lower national figure than model-based methods that impute likely undercounts ^[2].

4. The Missing 2020 Number — Trend Signals, Not a Hard Count

None of the supplied materials give a direct, standalone published estimate for the number of transgender adults in 2020. Multiple pieces note a clear upward trend in self-identification across surveys and age cohorts, and later summaries and reports produced after 2016 describe larger adult counts and higher percentages, particularly among younger adults, implying a growth in the population between 2016 and 2020; however, the documents provided stop short of offering a definitive 2020 total, so any specific numeric claim for 2020 cannot be verified from the available sources ^{[2] [3]}. The available reports and syntheses consistently point to rising prevalence, but they differ on magnitudes and methodological corrections, producing a credible qualitative conclusion of increase without a single agreed quantitative estimate for 2020 ^{[2] [3]}.

5. Reconciling the Range — What a Responsible Conclusion Looks Like

Given the competing methods and resultant point estimates, the responsible conclusion is that 2016 estimates fall in a range roughly between 1.0 million and 1.4 million adults identifying as transgender, with lower bounds from pooled-survey meta-analysis and higher bounds from modeled adjustments of a large health-survey system ^{[2] [1]}. For 2020, the evidence in these materials supports a direction of change — an increase in the number and share of adults identifying as transgender — but the precise 2020 count is not present in the provided documents and cannot be uniquely determined from them ^{[2] [3]}. Analysts and policymakers should therefore treat any single-year point estimate as model-dependent and report ranges plus methodological caveats rather than a lone number ^{[1] [2]}.

6. What to Watch and How to Use These Numbers

Decision-makers should use ranges and trend signals rather than single-point estimates and prioritize transparency about methods: model-based adjustments yield larger totals and highlight state variation, while pooled-survey approaches offer conservative aggregated estimates but can undercount emerging identifications among younger people ^{[1] [2]}. Future clarity requires standardized survey questions, repeated national measures, and methods that balance recent-survey weighting with robust adjustment for undercoverage. Until such harmonization is achieved, cite both the roughly 1.0 million and 1.4 million estimates for 2016 and state that 2020 likely saw higher numbers without a single verified total in the provided materials ^{[2] [1]}.