How has illicit fentanyl production evolved since 2020 and where are major manufacturing hubs located?
Executive summary
Illicit fentanyl production since 2020 has continued a multi-stage, transnational evolution: manufacturing increasingly centers on Mexican clandestine laboratories that use precursor chemicals and equipment sourced largely from China and India, while traffickers diversify product forms (powders, counterfeit pills, mixtures) to expand markets and evade controls [1] [2] [3]. Policymaking and enforcement responses—chemical scheduling in China, seizures by U.S. and Mexican authorities, and expanded interdiction—have pressured suppliers but not halted adaptation, as traffickers shift precursors, routes and production techniques [4] [5] [6].
1. How production shifted from Chinese synthesis to Mexican labs
A major structural change documented since 2019 and continuing after 2020 is the handoff from finished fentanyl production in China to precursor-focused supply chains feeding Mexican transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), which by the early 2020s had built the capacity to synthesize and press finished fentanyl products inside Mexico for U.S. markets [6] [1] [2].
2. Where the major manufacturing and supply hubs are located
Three geographic nodes dominate reporting: Mexico as the principal production and transit hub where cartels operate clandestine laboratories and pill presses; China as the largest source of precursor chemicals and equipment for illicit fentanyl; and India as an emerging supplier/relocation point for chemical inputs and production ties—together forming a China/India → Mexico → U.S. pipeline [2] [1] [3] [7].
3. Product evolution: powders, counterfeit pills, and admixtures
Illicit fentanyl markets have diversified physical forms since 2020, with powders, pressed counterfeit pills made to mimic prescription opioids, and fentanyl-adulterated stimulants becoming common; this diversification has amplified overdose risk because counterfeit pills and mixed supplies conceal fentanyl’s presence and potency [8] [9] [10].
4. Chemical workarounds and the “many-precursors” problem
Regulatory moves—China’s 2019 scheduling and later additions in 2024—have constrained certain precursors but not closed off the production ecosystem, because thousands of chemicals (reported by a 2022 U.S. commission to number over 3,100) can be used to synthesize fentanyl or analogues and many have legitimate industrial uses, creating a persistent “grey market” for dual-use substances that traffickers exploit [1] [4] [7].
5. Who is producing and controlling manufacture on the ground
Mexican cartels—most frequently identified in U.S. assessments as the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel—are now primary producers and distributors for the U.S. market, operating clandestine labs, pill presses and distribution networks; U.S. agencies and reports explicitly name Mexico-based TCOs as primary suppliers affecting the United States [1] [2] [3].
6. Enforcement, interdiction and why production adapts
Since 2020 federal and international enforcement efforts have increased seizures of fentanyl, precursors and manufacturing equipment and have demolished labs, yet reports note adaptive responses—relocation of synthesis, substitution among precursors, and exploitation of lightly regulated chemical markets—so that greater seizures have not equated to stopping production and distribution [5] [6] [7].
7. Public-health consequences and hidden information gaps
The rise in illicit fentanyl correlates with large increases in synthetic-opioid overdose deaths (synthetic opioids were the primary driver of overdose increases in 2020–2022), but available reporting does not provide complete forensic mapping of every production site or quantify the share of finished fentanyl still produced in China versus Mexico after 2023—those remain reporting limitations [8] [9] [1].
8. Synthesis: durable supply chains, continual adaptation
In sum, since 2020 illicit fentanyl production has become more geographically diffused but operationally integrated: China and India remain critical sources of chemical precursors and equipment while Mexico hosts the bulk of clandestine finishing and packaging for the U.S. market; legal scheduling and interdiction have imposed costs, but traffickers continue to adapt by changing precursors, formats and transit techniques, making the crisis resilient to single-track policy responses [1] [4] [2].