How many excess deaths occurred in the US during the Trump administration compared with the Biden administration?
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Executive summary
Available reporting shows more COVID-19 deaths and higher excess-death signals occurred during the period after January 2021 than before, but comparisons between “Trump years” and “Biden years” are complicated by different time spans, waves of the pandemic and geography. Reuters and Science Feedback note that roughly 600,000 of the U.S. COVID deaths occurred after Biden took office and that cumulative COVID deaths passed 1 million with a majority under Biden’s term [1] [2]. Broad excess-death studies flag very large national shortfalls in U.S. mortality versus other high‑income countries that peaked in 2021 (about 1.1 million excess deaths in one study year) and remained high in 2022–23 [3].
1. What the headline numbers say — COVID deaths split by administration
Major news outlets reported that by May 2022 the U.S. had recorded about 1 million COVID deaths overall and that “most” — some 600,000 — occurred after Biden took office in January 2021, which made the cumulative toll larger during Biden’s presidency simply because much of the pandemic continued into his term [1] [2]. Science Feedback cautions that more deaths under Biden largely reflect that COVID persisted throughout his longer elapsed time in office rather than a straightforward policy comparison [2].
2. Why simple comparisons mislead — time, waves and population patterns
Comparing raw death counts across administrations conflates time in office and waves of disease. The virus’s major waves and the arrival of vaccines and variants occurred on different calendars; Reuters and Science Feedback both stress the longer elapsed period under Biden and that more deaths “accumulated” during his term rather than demonstrating direct causation by one president [1] [2].
3. Excess deaths beyond COVID — national context and international comparison
Analysts looking at “excess deaths” — deaths above expected baselines or compared with peer countries — find the U.S. suffered extraordinary shortfalls. One cross‑national analysis estimated U.S. excess deaths peaked in 2021 at almost 1.1 million and remained high in 2022 (~800,000) and 2023 (~700,000), contributing to a multi‑year deficit versus other high‑income countries [3]. That framing shifts the question from “which president oversaw more coronavirus deaths” to “why has the U.S. underperformed comparable countries on mortality overall” [3].
4. Geographic and political patterns — counties, vaccines and misinformation
County‑level analyses show the pandemic’s burden shifted over time. Multiple outlets documented that after vaccines became widely available, counties that voted heavily for Trump experienced higher COVID death rates than those that voted for Biden — in some analyses nearly three times higher death rates in pro‑Trump counties since May 2021 [4] [5]. Pew and NBC reporting also show that Trump‑leaning counties accumulated tens of thousands more COVID deaths than the most Biden‑leaning counties, reflecting vaccine uptake, demographics and other local factors [6] [7].
5. Competing interpretations and political framing
Politicians and commentators have used these numbers for competing narratives: critics of Trump point to failures early in the pandemic and to systemic health harms during his term (for example, a Lancet‑linked critique summarized in the BMJ) while critics of Biden point to the larger cumulative death count during his time in office [8] [1]. Science Feedback explicitly frames the higher count under Biden as a function of time-in-office, not proof of superior or inferior management [2]. Reporters and analysts caution that both policy choices and preexisting U.S. health disadvantages matter [8] [3].
6. What the available sources do not settle
Available sources do not provide a single, definitive count of “excess deaths under Trump vs. Biden” that adjusts for differing term lengths, age structure, regional variation and non‑COVID causes. No source in the provided set offers a fully normalized comparison that answers “how many excess deaths occurred in the US during the Trump administration compared with the Biden administration” after controlling for time and demographic factors; current reporting instead supplies raw splits, county‑level patterns and international excess‑death estimates [2] [1] [3].
7. Bottom line for readers
Raw tallies show more COVID deaths accumulated during Biden’s time in office because the pandemic continued and large waves occurred after January 2021; county and vaccine‑uptake analyses show worse outcomes in many pro‑Trump areas, and broader excess‑death research documents a large U.S. mortality gap compared with peer countries that peaked in 2021 [1] [4] [3]. Determining “excess deaths attributable to one administration versus another” requires normalization for time, demographics and local conditions — a calculation not present in the cited reporting [2] [3].