Fact check: There's a consistent time difference between every global pandemic

1. Summary of the results

The claim about consistent time differences between global pandemics is definitively incorrect based on multiple expert sources and historical evidence. Historical records show that pandemics have occurred at irregular intervals throughout history, including the Black Death (1346-1353), the Great Plague of London ^[1], and various flu pandemics in 1957, 1968, and 2009 ^{[2] [3]}. Yale University history professor Frank Snowden explicitly rejects the idea, stating he is "suspicious of the idea that pandemics operate to a railroad timetable" ^[3].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original statement overlooks several crucial factors:

• The unpredictable nature of new diseases, as specifically noted by WHO regarding COVID-19 ^[4]
• The varying characteristics of different pandemics, including their duration, spread patterns, and impact ^[2]
• The existence of multiple significant pandemics that don't fit any regular pattern, such as yellow fever outbreaks in the late 1800s ^[3]
• The importance of considering each pandemic as a unique event with its own characteristics, rather than part of a predictable pattern ^[5]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The belief in consistent pandemic timing could be dangerous for several reasons:

• It could lead to false sense of security or unnecessary panic based on perceived "due dates" for pandemics
• This misconception particularly benefits:
• Conspiracy theorists who promote pattern-based predictions
• Social media influencers and content creators who gain engagement from sensational claims
• Pseudoscientific organizations that profit from fear-based messaging

The statement has been explicitly refuted by multiple health experts, including Dr. Susan Mercado and WHO spokespersons ^[4], emphasizing that pandemic occurrence is based on complex factors rather than predictable time intervals.