Is Covid severe now
Executive summary
COVID-19 in early 2026 is not uniformly “severe” in the way it was at the pandemic’s peak, but it continues to cause meaningful illness, hospitalizations and deaths—especially among vulnerable populations—and is contributing to healthcare strain alongside a severe influenza season [1] [2] [3]. Public sources show mixed indicators: many places have stable or declining COVID transmission while some states see growth, and expert commentary stresses that most cases are milder now but severe disease remains possible [2] [1].
1. Current epidemiology: patchwork of growth, decline and uncertainty
National modeling and Rt estimates from the CDC indicate variation across states—by late January 2026 infections were estimated to be growing in about 11 states, declining in 11, and unchanged in 27—highlighting that the epidemic is heterogeneous rather than universally surging or receding [2]. Global trackers such as KFF and WHO continue to report case and death data, but official dashboards and trackers emphasize that trends can shift rapidly and that policy trackers have also scaled back routine updates, complicating a single “is it severe” answer [4] [5].
2. Clinical severity: generally milder illness for most, but severe outcomes still occur
Multiple expert summaries and reporting in late 2025–early 2026 characterize circulating Omicron-lineage variants as tending toward upper-respiratory symptoms—sore throat, congestion, cough—with many infections milder than early-pandemic strains, yet clinicians and public-health scientists explicitly warn that severe disease and death remain possible for older adults, the very young, pregnant people and the immunocompromised [6] [1] [7]. Media coverage and expert Q&A note fewer hospitalizations than early waves thanks to population immunity and vaccination, but not elimination of risk [7] [8].
3. Healthcare burden: COVID remains part of a broader respiratory surge that stresses systems
CDC influenza surveillance shows the 2025–26 influenza season producing substantial pediatric deaths and tens of thousands of hospitalizations, and the agency frames influenza as one of several viruses currently contributing to respiratory disease activity—meaning hospitals are coping with overlapping respiratory epidemics rather than COVID alone [3] [9]. Some reporting suggests the combined toll of flu and COVID is straining capacity in places and complicating the public perception of COVID’s “severity” this winter [10].
4. Vaccines, guidance and who is most at risk
Public health guidance and reporting emphasize vaccination as the main defense against severe outcomes, with updated COVID-19 vaccine recommendations and shared clinical decision-making for older adults and immunocompromised individuals; experts continue to say vaccination reduces severity even when breakthrough infections occur [8]. Fact-checking coverage documents debate and variation in official recommendations—some states and organizations have adjusted their guidance—which reflects both evolving science and political or institutional differences in risk tolerance [8].
5. Conflicting narratives and implicit agendas in the coverage
Sources diverge: mainstream outlets and public-health agencies present a nuanced view of reduced average severity but persistent risk [1] [2], while activist pieces and some opinion sites portray the pandemic as an unchecked catastrophe with claims of enormous ongoing daily infections and systemic collapse—claims that should be treated cautiously and checked against official surveillance and peer-reviewed evidence [11] [12]. Reporting also reflects policy debate—changes to vaccine schedules and surveillance practices carry political dimensions and have prompted criticism that public-health priorities are shifting due to administrative choices rather than purely scientific consensus [8] [12].
6. Bottom line: is COVID severe now?
For most people in early 2026 COVID-19 is less likely to cause the extreme lung disease seen early in the pandemic and tends to produce milder, upper-respiratory illness thanks to immunity and vaccines, but it remains a cause of serious illness, hospitalization and death for high‑risk groups and contributes substantially to healthcare burden when combined with a severe flu season—so the answer is “not as uniformly severe as before, but still serious where it counts” [6] [1] [3]. Surveillance remains mixed by location and the situation requires continued monitoring, vaccination of vulnerable people, and public-health attention to hospital capacity rather than assuming the threat is over [2] [8].