What are the projected ACA subsidy income limits for 2026?

1. Bold Claims Extracted: What proponents and data sources are saying now

Analysts present two consistent claims: first, ACA subsidy eligibility is anchored to the federal poverty level, so income limits for 2026 will be expressed as percentages of the 2025 FPL; second, the temporary expansion of subsidies enacted since 2021 — which removed the 400% FPL eligibility cap for many enrollees — is set to expire December 31, 2025 unless Congress acts. The projection that 2026 eligibility will revert to the 100–400% FPL band appears across sources and calculators built for 2026 planning ^{[4] [5]}. Advocates highlight continued need for expanded aid; independent trackers warn of a “subsidy cliff” if enhancements lapse ^{[3] [6]}. These are presented as factual program mechanics tied to statute and published guideline updates ^[1].

2. How federal poverty guidelines translate into dollar thresholds for 2026

Published projections translate FPL percentages into concrete dollar thresholds using the 2025 FPL baseline. For a one-person household, the 2025 FPL values used in projections give $15,650 as 100% FPL and $62,600 as 400% FPL; intermediate thresholds commonly cited include 138% ($21,597), 150% ($23,475), 200% ($31,300), 250% ($39,125) and 300% ($46,950) ^[1]. Calculators and subsidy charts that updated for coverage year 2026 reference these dollar equivalents to estimate premium tax credit eligibility and expected contributions, but they note variability by household size and regional benchmark plan costs ^[4]. These numbers represent the baseline eligibility anchors used in public calculators and consumer guidance tools ^{[1] [4]}.

3. The “subsidy cliff” returns unless Congress acts — scale and timing

Multiple analyses emphasize that the enhanced premium tax credits (ARPA-era expansions) are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025. If Congress does not extend those provisions, Marketplace subsidies will generally revert to pre-enhancement rules and eligibility above 400% FPL will mostly end, producing a sharp reduction in assistance for middle-income households and a potential doubling of net premiums for some enrollees, according to modeling efforts ^{[7] [8]}. Policy trackers and policy centers frame this as a predictable statutory outcome rather than speculative risk, and they quantify significant beneficiary exposure to higher costs without legislative action ^[3]. The timing — effectively coverage year 2026 — makes this immediate for consumers planning enrollments in late 2025.

4. Numerical tables and the household-size adjustment: what the calculators show

Consumer-facing subsidy charts for 2026 embed the FPL-based thresholds into household-size adjustments: the one-person 100–400% FPL dollar figures scale upward with additional household members, using standard FPL increments for households of two through eight and adding an extra fixed amount for larger households, per the published guideline method. The calculators and charts updated for 2026 make clear that eligibility and credit size vary by household size, local benchmark premiums, and required contribution percentages, meaning two households with identical incomes can see different subsidy outcomes ^{[1] [4]}. These tools explicitly tie the arithmetic to the 2025 FPL and present the 100% and 400% cutoffs as the primary policy thresholds for projected 2026 eligibility absent legislative changes ^{[1] [2]}.

5. Conflicting narratives, stakeholder agendas, and what’s omitted

Policy organizations and trackers frame the facts differently: some stress the arithmetic and statutory schedule — that enhanced credits expire and eligibility will revert to 100–400% FPL — while advocacy groups highlight hardship risks and press for extension. Modeling emphasizing dramatic premium increases assumes a full reversion to pre-ARPA rules and does not account for partial legislative fixes or state-level mitigation measures. Calculators and charts note variations by age, geographic rating area, and benchmark plan choice, factors often omitted in summary headlines but crucial to individual outcomes ^{[3] [4]}. Readers should note that projections are policy-contingent: the statute sets a default path, but Congress can and might change that path before the end of 2025 ^[8].

6. Clear takeaways for consumers and policymakers

The factual baseline for 2026 is straightforward: subsidy eligibility is anchored to the 2025 FPL, which implies a one-person eligibility band of about $15,650–$62,600 for 100–400% FPL and scaled amounts for larger households; whether higher-income households remain eligible depends on Congressional action to extend enhanced credits ^{[1] [2] [3]}. Consumers should use updated 2026 calculators and marketplace notices to model their expected premiums, factoring household size and regional benchmark plans, while policymakers face a simple choice: let statutory reversion occur or enact extensions that alter eligibility and subsidy scales ^{[4] [7]}.