Abortion numbers have risen since Trump’s second term

1. What the numbers actually say: modest national increases, big state variation

Multiple data projects report increases in abortions after 2020: the Society for Family Planning’s #WeCount project estimates 1.14 million abortions in 2024, up from 1.05 million in 2023 ^[1], and Guttmacher found clinician‑provided abortions higher than in 2020 and reported near‑stability from 2023 to 2024 in states without total bans while documenting substantial state‑by‑state shifts ^[2]. Media coverage summarizing Guttmacher notes the national change from 2023 to 2024 was small — less than 1% — but that some states (e.g., Wisconsin, Arizona, California, Kansas, Ohio, Virginia) saw increases while others (e.g., Florida, South Carolina) saw sharp declines after near‑total bans ^{[2] [4]}.

2. Why attribution to “Trump’s second term” is analytically weak

Available sources emphasize multiple drivers — legal changes after Dobbs, shield laws, telehealth and cross‑state care, and shifts to medication abortion — rather than presidential incumbency alone ^{[1] [3] [5]}. Analysts note that state laws after 2022 produced divergent outcomes: bans reduced in‑state provision in some states while driving out‑of‑state flows and growth in abortion provision where access remained ^{[2] [1]}. A direct, nationwide causal claim that abortions “have risen since Trump’s second term” is not made in the sources; they instead document contemporaneous policy shifts and access patterns ^{[2] [1]}.

3. The mechanics: medication abortion, telehealth, and cross‑state care

Data show medication abortion now comprises a growing share of provision (about two‑thirds by some counts), and telehealth and cross‑state prescribing have expanded care to residents of restrictive states, increasing measured clinician‑provided abortions in states where services remain legal ^{[5] [3]}. Guttmacher reported roughly 155,000 people crossed state lines for an abortion in 2024 (15% of abortions in states without total bans), a decline from 2023’s ~169,000 but still roughly double 2020 levels — illustrating how geography and service modality matter for trends ^[2].

4. State bans shifted births and health outcomes, complicating the picture

Research linking abortion restrictions to increases in births and infant mortality in banned states underscores that reduced access in some places produced different public‑health consequences — not uniform national increases in abortions ^{[6] [7]}. Johns Hopkins analyses estimate fertility rises above expectation ranging from 0.3% to 2.3% in states with bans (largest in Texas at 2.3%), and other work found excess infant deaths associated with bans ^{[6] [7]}. These outcomes show bans change where and whether abortions occur — and affect related health indicators.

5. Political actions in a Trump second term: policy moves that affect access

Reporting catalogues multiple executive and agency actions early in Trump’s second term that could influence abortion access (reinstating the Mexico City Policy, potential Title X changes, VA rule proposals, personnel choices), and advocacy groups warn these moves could limit services or medication abortion access; those policy shifts create plausible pathways to change abortion provision but do not by themselves quantify the net national effect on annual counts ^{[8] [9] [10] [11]}.

6. How journalists and consumers should read claims linking timing to the presidency

Historical and methodological cautions matter: national counts have long been affected by reporting differences across states, changes in reporting methods, and the rise of non‑clinic medication abortion that some datasets undercount ^{[12] [13]}. Guttmacher, #WeCount and other projects triangulate different sources and note the importance of state‑level policy context — not just White House occupants — when interpreting trends ^{[2] [1] [13]}.

Conclusion — what the evidence supports and what it does not

The evidence in the available reporting supports that abortions in the U.S. increased relative to 2020 and that 2024 saw higher totals than 2023 in some datasets, but it does not support a simple causal claim that “abortion numbers have risen since Trump’s second term” without caveats; instead, sources point to Dobbs‑era state restrictions, cross‑state travel, telehealth and medication abortion as the proximate mechanisms shaping the observed changes ^{[1] [2] [3]}.