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How has SNAP participation and improper payment rate changed since 2008 and during the COVID-19 pandemic?
Executive Summary
SNAP participation rose substantially from 2008 through the early 2010s and remained elevated through the COVID-19 period before falling from pandemic peaks; FY2024 averaged about 41.7 million participants. The SNAP improper‑payment (error) rate climbed during the pandemic, peaked above pre‑pandemic levels, and showed only a modest decline into FY2024–FY2025, remaining higher than 2019 benchmarks [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. What the original claims said — and which parts are supported by data now
The original statements assert that participation rose since 2008, surged during the pandemic, and that improper payments increased. Multiple reports in the dataset corroborate those core claims: a trends report describes a 25 percentage‑point increase in participation from 2008 to 2022 with the biggest jump between 2008–2011, and USDA/ERS data show FY2024 average monthly participation of 41.7 million [1] [2]. Separate Quality Control reports and reporting from Agri‑Pulse record that the national SNAP error rate rose during the pandemic and, while it fell slightly between 2023 and 2024, it remains above the 2019 pre‑pandemic level of 7.36 percent [4] [3]. These sourced points align with the gist of the original claim.
2. How participation changed over the long term — the 2008 to 2022 arc
Longer‑term data show a multi‑stage trajectory: sharp growth during the Great Recession and its aftermath, more moderate movement in the 2010s, then policy‑driven and pandemic‑related shifts. The trends report documents an overall increase in participation rates from 65% to 90% between 2008 and 2022, with the largest uptick from 2008–2011; participation patterns vary by income band, age, and household composition, with children and the neediest households participating at higher rates [1]. The USDA point estimate of 41.7 million average monthly participants in FY2024 reflects a post‑pandemic caseload that is lower than pandemic peaks but still substantial [2]. Taken together, these sources show sustained growth from 2008 that plateaued and then partially receded after policy changes and economic shifts.
3. What happened during the COVID crisis — participation spikes and policy drivers
During COVID‑19 the federal response expanded benefits and eased access through waivers and emergency allotments; those changes drove caseload increases and higher benefits per household. Studies of state implementation find a 17% spike in applications early in the pandemic (Feb–May 2020), far larger than the 6% rise seen during the 2008 recession, and identify waivers and flexibilities as crucial to handling demand [5]. The Consolidated Appropriations Act and American Rescue Plan increased benefits and temporary eligibility adjustments in 2021, and a permanent Thrifty Food Plan rebenchmark also raised maximum benefits — all of which elevated both participation and benefit levels during and shortly after the pandemic [1] [6].
4. Improper payments — errors rose and only partly retreated after COVID
Quality‑control reporting makes clear that SNAP error rates climbed during the pandemic period, in part because of waiver complexity, strained state systems, and interruptions in USDA measurement (no published national rate for FY2020–FY2021). The FY2023 Quality Control report recorded a national average error rate of 11.68% (10.03% overpayments, 1.64% underpayments), and more recent coverage notes a slight dip to 10.93% in 2024, still well above the 7.36% 2019 rate [4] [3]. Those numbers show a meaningful deterioration in payment accuracy tied to rapid policy shifts and operational constraints, with only partial improvement by 2024 despite pressures to reinstate pre‑pandemic controls.
5. Why administrators struggled — implementation, IT, and policy tradeoffs
Research on state responses pinpoints six recurring themes: rigid guidance combined with state technology shortfalls, inconsistent communications, and funding limits that hindered prompt and accurate enrollment and recertification. Waivers expanded access but complicated verification and automated checks, leaving legacy systems and staff under strain, which contributed to elevated error rates [5]. Reports from USDA and journalists also highlight that policy changes such as emergency allotments and benefit recalibrations increased program complexity; states with weaker IT infrastructures faced larger operational and QC burdens, which helps explain variation in error rates and the slow recovery toward pre‑pandemic accuracy levels [4] [3].
6. The bottom line — what’s settled, what’s still unresolved for policy
The settled facts are straightforward: SNAP participation rose substantially from 2008 through the early 2010s, spiked during COVID due to expanded benefits and waivers, and averaged 41.7 million monthly participants in FY2024. Improper‑payment rates rose during the pandemic and remain elevated compared with 2019, with modest declines reported into 2024 [1] [2] [4] [3]. Open questions for policymakers center on balancing access and administrative integrity: whether states can modernize IT, how future emergency flexibilities should be designed to limit error exposure, and how proposed state cost‑share arrangements might change incentives for accuracy versus access [5] [3].