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Are there state-by-state estimates for Medicaid eligibility among Walmart workers in 2023 or 2024?
Executive Summary
State-by-state estimates specifically quantifying Medicaid eligibility among Walmart workers for 2023 or 2024 are not available in the reviewed reporting; most public analyses derive from a U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) study and subsequent media reporting that rely on older or partial state samples and do not provide a comprehensive 2023–2024 state-by-state breakdown. Nevada is a notable exception in the public record: a Nevada report and local reporting produced a 2023 estimate of roughly 4,726 Walmart employees eligible for Nevada Medicaid (with dependents and program cost estimates), but comparable statewide breakdowns for all states in 2023–2024 are absent from the examined material [1] [2]. The broader GAO-driven literature and subsequent commentary show Walmart among top private employers with workers on Medicaid and SNAP, but those figures are drawn from limited-state analyses and older data, not a current, nationwide state-by-state tabulation [3] [4].
1. A State That Did the Math: Nevada’s 2023 Estimate and Why It Matters
Nevada published a state-level accounting that identified approximately 4,726 Walmart employees eligible for Nevada Medicaid in 2023, with 5,218 dependents and a combined estimated cost of about $36.5 million to state and federal programs; this figure was widely reported by Nevada outlets in early 2024 and cited as a concrete, state-produced estimate [1]. The Nevada estimate matters because it demonstrates the methodology a state can use—matching employer rosters against enrollment data and calculating fiscal impacts—and it highlights that some states do produce employer-specific cost estimates, typically for employers with 50+ workers. That said, Nevada’s approach is state-specific, uses state administrative data, and cannot be extrapolated to produce a valid national state-by-state series without equivalent data and methodology from every state [2].
2. The GAO Anchor: National Patterns, Not A Complete State Breakdown
The U.S. Government Accountability Office produced a study cited across the reporting that found major national patterns—Walmart and similar large employers ranked highly among firms whose workers rely on Medicaid and SNAP—but the GAO’s analysis relied on data from a limited set of states and older reporting periods, so it did not produce a full, recent state-by-state tabulation for 2023–2024. Multiple media pieces referencing the GAO stressed that Walmart was among the top employers of Medicaid recipients in sampled states, citing totals such as 14,500 Walmart workers on federal assistance across their sampled jurisdictions, but these figures cannot be read as comprehensive state-by-state estimates for 2023 or 2024 [5] [6]. The GAO-backed findings are useful for national trend context but not for answering the user’s precise request for recent, state-by-state eligibility counts.
3. Why Public Reporting is Patchy: Data, Privacy, and Method Differences
State-by-state employer-specific Medicaid eligibility reporting is patchy because Medicaid enrollment and eligibility data are held by states and subject to privacy rules and varying matching methodologies; some states publish employer-cost reports, while others do not. Investigative outlets and policy groups have used FOIA requests, state reports, and GAO samples to produce snapshots, but those efforts produce incomplete coverage—the 2020-era GAO work and subsequent 2020–2024 media summaries repeatedly note that their employer lists cover only subsets of states, often with differing years and measurement choices [7] [8]. The divergence in methods means that apparent totals (for example, reported counts of employees on Medicaid or SNAP) may not be comparable across states or years without standardized, contemporaneous state data.
4. The Nevada Exception and What It Does — and Doesn’t — Prove
Nevada’s 2023 calculation proves that state-produced, employer-specific Medicaid cost accounting is feasible, but it also demonstrates the limits of inference: Nevada’s findings reflect that state’s population, Medicaid rules, employer footprint, and data-matching methods, and therefore cannot be generalized to produce a reliable 2023–2024 national state-by-state series for Walmart without similar reports from each state [1] [2]. Reporters and advocacy groups have leaned on Nevada-style calculations to argue both fiscal impacts on taxpayers and labor policy implications, revealing competing agendas—fiscal accountability arguments from state reports and worker-support framing from advocacy—each using the same data to support differing policy prescriptions [1] [3].
5. Bottom Line: What You Can and Cannot Take Away Right Now
You can reliably point to Nevada’s 2023 estimate as a documented, state-level count of Walmart employees eligible for Medicaid, and you can cite GAO-based national patterning that places Walmart among major employers with many workers on public assistance; however, you cannot find a comprehensive, publicly available 2023 or 2024 state-by-state set of Medicaid eligibility estimates for Walmart workers in the examined sources. To obtain a full state-by-state series for 2023–2024 would require either a new GAO-style nationwide study with updated state participation or individual state reports modeled on Nevada’s approach appearing in each state—neither of which exists in the cited material [1] [3] [4].