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Which U.S. states had the biggest change in firearm death rates between 2023 and 2024?
Executive summary
Available sources do not provide a state-by-state ranked list of the largest changes in firearm death rates specifically between 2023 and 2024; reporting instead gives national totals and notes that “thirteen states saw total gun deaths increase between 2023 and 2024” while overall U.S. firearm deaths fell about 4–5% (from ~46.7k in 2023 to ~44.4k in 2024) [1] [2]. For state-level rate changes, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s state mortality tables are the canonical source but the publicly indexed CDC page in the search set lists state rates for 2023 only and the sources here do not include a 2024 state-by-state rate comparison (p1_s10; available sources do not mention a 2024 state table).
1. The national picture: small decline, uneven geography
Multiple outlets compiled provisional national data showing that total firearm deaths fell from more than 46,000 in 2023 to roughly 44,000–44,700 in 2024 — a decline in the range of about 4–5 percent — and that the drop was driven largely by falling homicides (homicides down ~14% nationally) even as suicides remained high or stable [1] [2] [3]. The Trace’s July 2025 analysis reports gun homicides declined from nearly 18,000 in 2023 to just over 15,000 in 2024 and that thirteen states experienced total gun-death increases year-to-year, signaling a geographically mixed pattern [1].
2. What the available sources do — and don’t — provide on states
The CDC’s “Stats of the States” firearm mortality resource is cited as the authoritative state-level source for age-adjusted firearm death rates, but the provided CDC link in the search results reflects 2023 rates and the dataset in this collection does not include a 2024 state-by-state rate table or a computed change column for 2023→2024 [4]. Reporting outlets like The Trace and USAFacts summarize national totals and identify high-rate and low-rate states (e.g., Mississippi, New Mexico, Alaska high; Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Jersey low) but do not publish a full ordered list of which states had the biggest rate increases or decreases in 2023–2024 in the sourced material [1] [2].
3. Why state comparisons can be tricky and why methodology matters
State-level rate changes can be sensitive to provisional data revisions, age-adjustment choices, and whether journalists report counts or age-adjusted rates; the CDC emphasizes age-adjusted mortality rates and notes its WONDER database underlies state estimates [4]. County Health Rankings flags that changes in denominators or race classifications can make year-to-year comparisons problematic, a reminder that direct 2023→2024 comparisons require consistent methods and final (not provisional) data [5].
4. What reporters have already highlighted about particular states
Reporting here repeatedly flags a handful of states as having high absolute or per-capita firearm-death burdens (Mississippi, New Mexico, Alaska) and others as having low rates (Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Jersey), but these mentions are about levels rather than year-over-year changes; The Trace’s state-rate mentions are part of its national summary rather than a ranked “biggest change” list [1]. SafeHome’s reporting on gun sales notes large falls in some states’ sales between 2023 and 2024 (e.g., Washington, New Mexico) but sales trends are not the same as death-rate changes and the SafeHome piece does not link those sales declines to precise mortality-rate deltas [6].
5. Two approaches to get the exact answer and their implications
To identify which states had the biggest changes in firearm death rates between 2023 and 2024 you need: (A) the CDC WONDER/Stats-of-the-States age-adjusted firearm mortality rate for each state for 2023 and 2024 (finalized) and (B) a consistent method to compute differences (absolute rate change and percent change). The search results include the CDC page for state rates [7] but do not include a downloadable 2024 state table in this dataset; therefore the exact per-state ranking is not available in the materials provided (p1_s10; available sources do not mention a 2024 state table).
6. Context and caveats for readers interpreting year-to-year changes
Small states with low counts can show large percentage swings from a handful of deaths, while large-population states may move more slowly in percentage terms even with large count changes; provisional data are often revised; and cause-specific trends (homicide vs. suicide) can move in opposite directions within the same state [8] [1]. The Trace and Gun Violence Archive both stress that declines in 2024 were concentrated in homicides and nonfatal shooting tallies, while suicides — which make up over half of firearm deaths — behaved differently across subgroups and states [1] [3] [8].
If you want a precise ranked list of which U.S. states had the biggest increases and decreases in firearm death rates from 2023 to 2024, I can fetch the CDC WONDER/Stats-of-the-States 2023 and provisional/final 2024 state tables and compute both absolute and percent changes — would you like me to pull those CDC tables and produce a ranked table with methodological notes?