What are the suicide attempt and death rate trends for transgender adults by age group in U.S. studies 2020–2025?

1. National probability data: very high lifetime ideation and attempts among adults

The first national probability sample of transgender adults in the U.S., reported by the Williams Institute using TransPop data, found extraordinarily high lifetime prevalences: 81% of transgender adults reported lifetime suicidal ideation and 42% reported a lifetime suicide attempt, figures that are many times higher than population baselines and which crystallize the scale of lifetime risk documented in 2023 research ^[1].

2. Age gradients: younger transgender adults show higher recent attempt rates

Multiple studies and youth-focused surveys converge on a clear age pattern: younger transgender people exhibit the highest rates of recent suicidal ideation and attempts. Large youth surveys (Trevor Project data) show substantial past‑year suicidal thoughts and attempts among transgender and nonbinary youth (for example, state-level past‑year attempt rates reaching roughly low‑ to mid‑teens in several states) and peer-reviewed analyses note that younger TNB respondents have higher rates overall; a 2025 intersectional analysis likewise reported higher past‑year attempts concentrated among younger groups ^{[5] [2]}.

3. Recent past‑year attempt estimates vary by sample and methodology

Estimates of past‑year attempts differ sharply across studies because of sampling frames: community convenience samples and clinical samples often report higher short‑term attempt prevalence, while probability samples may yield lower past‑year figures but still above general population norms. For instance, a Trans PULSE–type analysis cited in 2025 work found about 4.2% reporting a suicide attempt in the past year in one community‑based sample, whereas youth surveys report past‑year attempt proportions in the low‑to‑teens among transgender youth in several states ^{[2] [5]}. This variation reflects true heterogeneity plus methodological differences, not necessarily contradictory trends.

4. Suicide deaths: limited U.S. evidence, reliance on older or foreign cohorts

There is a persistent data gap on suicide death rates for transgender adults in the U.S.; structured, large‑scale mortality studies are lacking and most definitive mortality findings come from small samples or non‑U.S. cohorts. Reviews note that structured prevalence studies on suicide deaths among transgender people are scarce and that some cohort studies abroad (e.g., Swedish and Danish cohorts) found elevated suicide mortality after medical transition, but these cannot be straightforwardly extrapolated to current U.S. adult trends between 2020–2025 ^{[3] [6] [4]}.

5. Drivers, policy signals, and conflicting interpretations

Researchers point to a multifactorial picture—individual clinical factors, stigma, discrimination, and social environments—as drivers of elevated suicidality in transgender people, and several U.S. studies link policy contexts (for example, passage of restrictive state laws) to measurable increases in youth suicide attempts shortly after enactment ^{[4] [7]}. At the same time, legal and law‑review commentators emphasize complexity and caution against single‑factor explanations—some argue that high rates persist even in affirming nations, implying additional individual or historical factors—highlighting debates about causality and policy efficacy ^[6].

6. What the evidence does and does not show for 2020–2025

Evidence from 2020–2025 consistently shows elevated lifetime and recent suicidal thoughts and attempts among transgender adults, concentrated among younger age groups, but it does not provide a robust, nationally representative time series of suicide deaths by age for U.S. transgender adults; mortality trends for this period remain uncertain due to sample limitations and the absence of comprehensive transgender identifiers in death registries ^{[1] [3] [4]}. Researchers and advocates therefore call for improved population surveillance, standardized measures, and linkage of administrative data to resolve whether suicide death rates among transgender adults in the U.S. rose, fell, or remained steady across 2020–2025 ^{[3] [4]}.