Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
How has the number of abortions due to rape changed over the past decade?
Executive summary
Data on how many abortions result from rape over the past decade is sparse and inconsistent: several long-standing analyses and advocacy summaries say rape-related abortions represent a very small share of all abortions (commonly cited as about 1% or a range like 1–5%), while recent academic estimates focused on rape-related pregnancies in states with post‑Roe bans put the number of pregnancies (not necessarily abortions) from rape in those states at about 64,000 since bans took effect [1] [2] [3] [4]. Available sources do not provide a clear, year‑by‑year national trend in the number of abortions specifically due to rape over the past decade; most reports either use older survey data or produce cross‑sectional estimates for narrower questions [1] [5] [3].
1. Old survey findings that are still cited: rape‑related abortions were common among rape‑pregnancies
A national probability study published in the 1990s found that among pregnancies that resulted from rape, roughly half ended in abortion and about a third were carried to term [5] [6]. That study addresses outcomes of rape‑caused pregnancies, not the share of all abortions nationwide that are due to rape; yet its frequently‑cited figure (about 50% of rape‑pregnancies resulted in abortion in that sample) is often used in debates about policy and exceptions [5] [6].
2. “1%” and similar small‑share figures refer to the share of all abortions attributed to rape
Web compilations and advocacy summaries repeatedly state that only about 1% of abortions are obtained because of rape, with some sources offering a broader range (1–5%) and noting underreporting of sexual assault could bias such estimates [1] [2]. These small‑share figures are routinely invoked in policy debates, but the sources often trace back to different surveys and are not a consistent, time‑series measure of change over the past decade [1] [2].
3. Recent research quantified rape‑related pregnancies in states with post‑Roe bans — not national rape‑abortion counts
A 2024 cross‑sectional study and subsequent press coverage estimated ~64,565 rape‑caused pregnancies in the 14 U.S. states that enacted total abortion bans after Roe was overturned; the authors concluded many survivors could not obtain in‑state legal abortions even where “rape exceptions” exist [3] [7] [8]. Journalists and advocates reported this as evidence that exceptions are insufficient; however, that research estimated pregnancies from rape, not how many of those pregnancies ended in abortion, and it relied on modeling using multiple data sources because reliable state‑level rape data are limited [3] [7] [8].
4. Methodological disagreements and critiques matter for interpreting trends
Conservative policy analysts and think tanks have sharply criticized the JAMA study’s methods and conclusions, claiming arithmetic errors and implausible implications about the percentage of abortions that would be for rape or incest [9]. Those critiques illustrate that different assumptions — about reporting rates, which assaults lead to pregnancy, and how to apportion national estimates to states — produce very different numerical conclusions. Available sources do not resolve these methodological disputes definitively [9] [3].
5. Why a clear decade‑long trend is not available from the cited sources
Most sources here either: (a) report cross‑sectional or older survey results about outcomes of rape‑pregnancies (for example, the 1990s national sample) or (b) model recent counts of rape‑caused pregnancies for a subset of states after Roe [5] [6] [3]. None of the provided materials offer an annualized, nationally comparable series of “abortions due to rape” for 2015–2025, so one cannot reliably state whether that number rose, fell, or stayed the same across the decade based on these sources alone [1] [3].
6. Competing perspectives and what to watch for in better data
Advocates on both sides use different figures to support policy: some emphasize surveys and compilations that put rape‑related abortions at roughly 1% of all abortions [1] [2], while recent academic modeling highlights thousands of rape‑caused pregnancies in states where abortion access was restricted post‑Roe [3] [4]. Improving clarity would require: consistent national data collection on reasons for abortion, better tracking of rape‑related pregnancies and outcomes, and transparent methodological choices in modeling — none of which the current set of sources fully delivers [1] [3] [9].
7. Bottom line for your question
Available sources do not provide a definitive, year‑by‑year national trend in the number of abortions due to rape over the past decade. Existing evidence shows (a) historical survey data indicating about half of rape‑caused pregnancies were terminated in at least one national sample [5] [6], (b) commonly cited small shares of all abortions attributed to rape (about 1% or up to a few percent) [1] [2], and (c) recent modeled estimates that thousands of rape‑caused pregnancies occurred in states with post‑Roe bans (≈64,000) but do not translate directly into counts of abortions [3] [7] [8].