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Fact check: “For every 1% unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die.”
1. Summary of the results
The claim that "40,000 people die for every 1% increase in unemployment" is an oversimplification of complex research. The original statistic comes from a 1982 book "Corporate Flight" by Bluestone, Harrison, and Baker, which actually cited 37,000 deaths, not 40,000 [1]. While research by Yale's M. Harvey Brenner confirms a correlation between unemployment and increased mortality, the exact numerical relationship is not as straightforward as the statement suggests [2].
2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints
The original statement omits several crucial details:
- The figure includes not just deaths but also other social impacts, including:
- 20,000 heart attacks
- 920 suicides
- 650 homicides
- 4,000 mental hospital admissions
- 3,300 prison admissions [1]
- The research demonstrates that unemployment affects health through multiple channels:
- Impact on social status
- Decreased self-esteem
- Overall well-being deterioration [2]
- Important caveat: Economist Wade Thomas warns that this historical research cannot be directly applied to current circumstances due to "too many variables" being involved [1].
3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement
The statement has gained popularity through media like "The Big Short" [3], but presents several potential issues:
- It rounds up the number from 37,000 to 40,000, making it more memorable but less accurate [1]
- It oversimplifies a complex relationship between unemployment and mortality that involves numerous variables [1]
- It presents a dated statistic from 1982 as if it were currently applicable [1]
- It implies a direct cause-and-effect relationship when the research only establishes correlation [2]
This type of simplified statistic often benefits those arguing for specific economic policies or trying to make dramatic points about economic inequality, while potentially overlooking the more nuanced reality of modern labor markets and healthcare systems.