Fact check: Likelihood an unvaccinated child will get menangitis in alberta

1. Summary of the results

The likelihood of an unvaccinated child getting meningitis in Alberta varies significantly by age group. According to comprehensive epidemiological data, the mean incidence of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in Canada is 0.31 cases per 100,000 population annually ^[1]. The risk is highest for infants under one year at 3.11 cases per 100,000, while children aged 1-4 years face a risk of 0.82 cases per 100,000, and adolescents 15-19 years have a risk of 0.58 cases per 100,000 ^[1].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Several crucial contextual points need to be considered:

• Meningitis can be caused by both viruses and bacteria, and is most prevalent in children, teens, and young adults ^[2]
• Serogroup B is identified as the most common strain, particularly affecting children under five years ^[1]
• There are significant regional variations in risk, and vaccination programs are recommended based on local epidemiology ^[1]
• The rate of unvaccinated children has increased significantly over time - from 0.3% in 2001 to 1.3% in recent years in the United States ^[3]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question oversimplifies a complex health issue in several ways:

• It doesn't acknowledge that the risk varies significantly by age group ^[1]
• It fails to consider that unvaccinated children not only put themselves at risk but also compromise community-wide herd immunity ^[3]
• The question focuses solely on individual risk, while experts emphasize that childhood vaccinations are the best preventive measure for the entire community ^[2]
• The query doesn't specify age group, which is crucial as the risk varies dramatically from infancy through adolescence ^[1]

*Note: While these statistics are from Canadian national data, local Alberta rates might vary due to regional differences in vaccination coverage and disease prevalence.*