How many abortions done in the US annually are due to insist or rape?
Executive summary
Estimates vary widely depending on method: a recent JAMA-based count cited by PBS and others estimated more than 64,000 rape-related pregnancies in jurisdictions that enacted post‑Roe bans, a figure used to highlight policy impacts [1] [2]. By contrast, longstanding survey‑based estimates (often cited from Guttmacher) put the share of all U.S. abortions sought because of rape at about 1% and for incest under 0.5% — a much lower proportion that has driven criticism of the higher JAMA figure [3].
1. Two different numbers, two different questions
The apparent contradiction comes from different questions and methodologies. The 64,000 figure reported in PBS and cited as coming from a JAMA analysis counts estimated pregnancies from rape in a set of states that enacted bans post‑Dobbs; it is designed to quantify how many rape‑related pregnancies occur where abortions became restricted [1] [2]. The Guttmacher‑style number — roughly 1% of abortions attributable to rape and <0.5% to incest — comes from surveys asking people the primary reason they sought an abortion, and yields a share of all abortions that are obtained for those reasons [3]. Both numbers are reported in the available sources; they are not directly comparable [1] [3].
2. Why methodology matters — incidence vs. share
A count of rape‑related pregnancies in a geography (the JAMA approach as reported) measures incidence — how many pregnancies result from sexual assault in a population over a period [1]. Survey percentages measure the share of actual abortions that respondents cite as due to rape or incest [3]. A high incidence of rape‑related pregnancies in a region does not automatically translate into a high share of abortions for that reason if many of those pregnancies do not end in abortion, if people travel to obtain care elsewhere, or if reporting and access barriers distort who gets counted [1] [3].
3. Policy context changes the interpretation
Analysts and advocates cite the JAMA‑derived 64,000 to illustrate how many survivors live under bans and thus could be barred from care; PBS emphasized that several states have no rape/incest exceptions or restrict them tightly, amplifying policy consequences [1] [2]. Critics, including the Heritage Foundation piece in the provided results, argue the JAMA estimate overstates how many abortions would have been sought for rape or incest, pointing to the Guttmacher‑type survey share to dispute implications about the proportional effect on abortion numbers [3]. Both perspectives are present in the sources and stem from different policy narratives: one focuses on survivors potentially denied care, the other on the relative frequency of rape as a stated reason for abortion [1] [3].
4. Reporting, underreporting and legal barriers complicate counts
Sexual assaults are widely underreported; sources note only a minority of assaults are reported to police, and state laws sometimes require reporting or other proof to qualify for exceptions — measures that can make legal access effectively unattainable even where exceptions exist [4] [5]. The KFF analysis and studies of state exceptions emphasize that fine print, reporting deadlines, and provider reporting requirements can suppress use of exceptions and create a chilling effect on care [4] [5].
5. What the sources do not resolve
Available sources do not provide a single, definitive annual national count of abortions that were actually performed because of rape or incest across the U.S. The JAMA‑area estimate gives a multi‑year tally for specific jurisdictions (reported as 64,000+ in affected states), while Guttmacher‑style survey percentages imply a much smaller ongoing share of abortions nationwide — but neither source in the set delivers a unified, current national annual number that reconciles incidence, access, travel, and underreporting [1] [3].
6. Competing agendas and how they shape interpretation
The JAMA‑based framing has been used by pro‑choice advocates and reporting (PBS) to emphasize the number of survivors affected by bans [1] [2]. Conservative critics point to Guttmacher survey percentages to argue rape and incest account for only a small fraction of abortions and to question extrapolations that imply large portions of abortions would be for those reasons [3]. Each side selects the statistic that best supports its policy argument; both use legitimate data but from different vantage points [1] [3].
7. Bottom line for readers
If your question is “how many pregnancies from rape occur in states with post‑Dobbs bans,” the JAMA‑based figure reported in PBS is the most prominent estimate in these sources: more than 64,000 [1] [2]. If your question is “what fraction of abortions are sought because of rape or incest,” the widely cited survey‑based estimate is roughly 1% for rape and under 0.5% for incest, a far smaller share [3]. Reconciling incidence of rape‑related pregnancy with the share of abortions for rape requires more cross‑matched data that the current set of sources does not provide [1] [3].